Monday, June 25, 2012

Guesstimates on June 25, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1305-1322.  I think this break will probably continued down to 1300 or so. But it is only a correction within a bigger up trend. A move to new bull market highs is underway.  
QQQ:  A move to new bull market highs is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. Yields moved up prior to and after yesterday's Fed news so I conclude the market thinks the Fed's easing actions will have the desired effect. If so yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is still at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.    
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
August  Crude: Crude oil is approaching  what should be strong support near the 75 level.  From there a rally of $15 or so will be likely before the market resumes its long term trend to still lower prices.    
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 and has traded sideways even as the broader averages have dropped during the past few days. This is a sign of strength and I think the market is headed above its 644 top.  


mike said...

carl , i will have to say if a move to new highs does occur then it will be a real contrarian call !However turning points are hard to notice. do you have a line in the sand ? thanks for your thoughts, michael

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
have you any thoughts on the NASDAQ's
10-11 month sideways movement in 2011 ?? Not expecting an answer here just noting it . As for the spx
weekly chart i made the case for point 15 early in the year and if my notes are correct they also correlated with a short advance as far as Lindsay time spans are concerned counting from the 2010 lows . painting a broad brush here and keeping an open mind ( even if i do have a bearish bias cyclically ) there is a low to low to high to ??? count going into the week of July 9th 2012 a long advance would count 765 days on Aug 4th . my question to myself then becomes ( big brush here )
was the June 2012 low point 16 ?
will point 17 then peak the week of July 9th-aug 4th ?? I don't favor this outcome but it certainly would be a clean count
this would imply then we are in an extended advance from the mid 2010 lows and that would also imply no bull market top until Jan 20th-march 18th 2013 .
all just food for thought .
cyclically i see several bearish cycles increasing from mid July into Feb 2013 .
on another note ,looking at a stock and just food for thought also : TEVA from the Sept 23rd low in 2011 ,the pattern looks a bit sloppy yet i can count the subdivisions 1 through 10 into the lows of June 15th 20th 2012 .
this should be interesting to see
how points 11 12 13 14 play out .
using point 10 adding 7 months and 10 days from June 15 20th 2012
( yes i know speculative )
it would target a top from jan 25th 30th 2013 .
Bottom line : a few correlations
Lastly and this is another considerations
oct 1997 oct 2002 oct 2007
oct 2012 ???
could this sideways movement
imply we are holding up in a bearish cycle better then expected ?