Wednesday, June 06, 2012

Guesstimates on June 6, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1286-1301. The market has moved back above its May 21 low at 1287.25 and this is a modestly bullish development. It becomes more significant because the advancing issues oscillators showed bullish divergences at the 1262 low. I think it is likely that 1262 ended the drop from 1419.75.
QQQ:  Support is still  at 59.50 but it now looks like the correction is over. A move to new bull market highs should be the next development.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  
SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.
Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 


Afshaikh said...

Could you update your GOLD outlook ?

PRB said...

Carl, Your chart page is a great basket of tools. It prints a fuller picture that your commentary.

mike said...

wow , we just have to be long now and the politicians will take care of all of us and the markets, never a severe correction ever again and now the new normal is two wrongs aways make a right. its just that easy . wow who new

john said...
This comment has been removed by the author.