Friday, June 22, 2012

Guesstimates on June 22, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1310-1327.  I think yesterday's break will probably continued down to 1300 or so. But it is only a correction within a bigger up trend. A move to new bull market highs is underway.  
QQQ:  A move to new bull market highs is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. Yields moved up prior to and after yesterday's Fed news so I conclude the market thinks the Fed's easing actions will have the desired effect. If so yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: The market has bounced off of 1.2250 support. Resistance above the market is now at 1.2760. EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
August  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even after the S&P and the Dow broke below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top. 


ILUVPMS said...


Are you sure of a sustained move in silver is underway. It looks to me that a capitulation in the commodities may occur.

Tushar said...

ILUV: It seems capitulation has already occurred by many technical indicators RSI and others such as Sprott spot price premium paid by investors over actual price of Silver seen to lows not seen before in the month of May. Hence, it looks to me that a fool's trade is to bet on higher prices as a contrarian and not going with what "seems like a trade". I think many will be caught off guard when PMs slowly and gradually move out of the long lasting long term bottom. I bet bulls will return and richly rewarded in coming three months.