Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Guesstimates on November 20, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1378-93. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is a wide range, upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  
January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop has exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed below 26.00.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  APPL should encounter resistance is the 575-80 zone and then begin another down leg. It would not surprise me to see this down leg stop above the 505 low even as the market averages move below their corresponding low points.


john said...

1382 if held on closing in S+P500 then we will see 1400 !
Right ?
Thanks !

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Just going to keep it simple
nov 28-dec 6 is where many different time counts come together . a high in that time period fits . a failure to break down and make new lows coming out of that time period shifts the odds of more bullish potential . the 3 peaks domed house can be counted a variety of ways .
weather this be point 24 to 25 or 26 to 27 is kind of mute .
the weekly spx though can be counted as point 18 to point 19
the drops of point 15 to 16 as well as 17 to 18 ( the recent low being 18 on this count ) were very similar in terms of price and time duration . an extended advance from the july 2010 low could imply a high into as late and march 2013
a long advance ending oct 9 2012 so far fits the count and the 3 peaks domed house is valid at this juncture . if it fails though to make new lows on this next drop
i will label it a point 20 low and loow for new all time highs in the spx and dow to follow .
key swing periods now into feb 12th 2013
good luck
PS, i had typed out much more detail yet my computer messed up and so i went with the short version