Monday, November 26, 2012

Guesstimates on November 26, 2012



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1389-1403. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target unless and until the ES spends most of a day trading above 1404, the midpoint of the September-November drop, and closes above that level.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  
January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.
SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  APPL should encounter resistance is the 575-80 zone and then begin another down leg. It would not surprise me to see this down leg stop above the 505 low even as the market averages move below their corresponding low points. Strength above 575-80 would mean that AAPL is headed above 700.

2 comments:

rg said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
john said...

The market 's
expectation is for a cliff compromise to result in a ~1% headwind for GDP (vs. the full fiscal cliff
worth ~3.6% of GDP).<from a very reliable+knowledgable source !
Fiscal Cliff 's any 2012 deal will likely only be a “bridge”.
I wanted to know in depth the impact it had in S+P500 from 1475-1343!
Thank You !