Friday, November 23, 2012

Guesstimates on November 23, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1389-95. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  
January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop has exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed below 26.00.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  APPL should encounter resistance is the 575-80 zone and then begin another down leg. It would not surprise me to see this down leg stop above the 505 low even as the market averages move below their corresponding low points.


PRB said...

The current 3pdh pattern looks like #11. A congessional year end band aid could move us to the next level and a toping early 2013. Seasonal and election year trends could foster this observation.

Bill said...

Carl looks like the reaction is over and the bull market is back.

john said...

Monday's Eurogroup meeting should give the green light for the release of
the €44bn payment due to Greece.
1475 high 14/9---1343low 16/11, -----4.5%Up S+P500 -1/2 of sell off recouped.
Happy World !
Thanks a ialot !

john said...

Five Reasons America Won’t Fall Off the ‘Fiscal Cliff’