Friday, November 09, 2012

Guesstimates on November 9, 2012



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1352-1372. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target.
QQQ:  Downside target is 61.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Support is at 1.2750 and has just been reached .
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop late last week exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  
SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed below 26.00.  
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  The trend in the broader averages is downward and APPL shouldl continue down to 525.

2 comments:

Kishore said...

Carl, the market needed a breather today. However, ES closed at 1376, moving closer to the low for the day.

Your predication of the range 1352-1372 should be good on Monday.

Most probbaly, we will be open with a gap down on Monday and trend to 1352 or lower.

The retracement has been so poor.

The S&P should fall through the 200 day MA, as did QQQ, like a knife thru butter.

Win said...

Carl,

Your pattern (or a slightly different one) is getting play time all over the web: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/three-peaks-and-a-domed-house-revisited/

I've been trading it, but headlines like this make me a bit nervous.