Thursday, July 12, 2012

Guesstimates on July 12, 2012


September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1320-35.  The drop from 1375 is unlikely to go lower than 1320. After this reaction is complete the move to new bull market highs will resume.
QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The market seems to think that the Fed's easing actions will have the desired effect. If so yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.    
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
August  Crude: A rally of about $15 is underway. Resistance above the market is at 93. Once that level is reached the market will probably resume its long term trend to still lower prices.    
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.
Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  

2 comments:

robert silkes said...

Seems like Euro is headed lower and USD index headed higher which will continue to put pressure on US earnings in medium term, thus I fail to see US markets rally much, if at all, in medium term unless QE3 comes along & puts the brakes on the USD. If anything, I would not be surprised to see a poor earnings season which hits the market thru July/Aug where a low for 2012 might be establised.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
i know this is bit odd yet thought id comment . $HGX , it appears to be a 3 peaks domed house pattern yet is outside the time parameters. what i find interesting about this though
is it dovetails with the benner business cycle . i have no time components i i am considering here
just noticing that for the first time in a while the housing sector based on that index appears to be leading higher and showing more strength the other stock indexes .
the move up from march 6 2009 low
to the April 26 2010 high would be a subnormal advance , the decline that followed ( April 26 2010 - Oct 4 2011 ) was 526 calendar days
which would be considered outside the Lindsay time counts unless we considered the entire move 2 separate bear markets.
long story short the entire pattern from the march 6 2009 low appears to be a longer version of a 3 peaks domed house and it fits with in many of the discussions we ( many people including yourself ) have had over the years with respect to the dow .
i don't see the mid section yet i am sure there is one in it , haven't really taken the time to calculate it