Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Guesstimates on July 31, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1380-93.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range.  
QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900. Draghis's promise to save the EU is long term bearish for the currency because it will require an expansion of euro liquidity relative to dollar liquidity.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.
GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.
Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.


janet said...

Hi Carl, with more and more people coming out and saying stocks are dead. And the era of stocks is dead, Bill Gross adding to the parade today. Does that not seem bullish?? Like a major up-move could be ahead??

Carl Futia said...

Well, Business Week magazine had a cover story in 1979 about the death of equities. It took three more years for the gloom to build and the stock market to form a low in 1982. We all know what happened next.