Monday, April 09, 2012

Guesstimates on April 9, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1370-1382. The 1375 level is strong support and I think the ES is about to rally to 1400 and higher. Looking a bit further ahead the market is likely to reach the May 2008 to at 1442 during the next few weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 632. and support at 590.


Win said...

Carl, I think this is Wave 4 and a great buying opportunity. We're going straight to 1500 and 2007 highs. This pause was necessary so we could get enough pessimism going to take out 1440.

Graph1159 said...

There seems to be a dramatic surge in talk about QE3 as a result of the jobs report on Friday. Does this have significance from a contrarian perspective?