Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Guesstimates on April 11, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1356-1371. At yesterday's low the stock market was extremely oversold and the overnight rally indicates that a more balanced condition is emerging. The low of the drop from the 1419.75 high should be somewhere in the 1330-1350 range. Once this bull market reaction is completed a move to new highs will begin.

QQQ: Support is now at 65.25 and this reaction is likely to end near there.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support at 635 has been broken but I think the 615 level will hold.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.


Nav said...
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Adsense said...

when looking at the various indexes
i am getting various wave patterns
yet the one conclusion I'm seeing
is we have been in a complex sideways
movement from Feb 9th in the $nya
which was an expanding triangle
can be counted as points 15 through 20. in the Dow from march 16th to date would be points 15 and 16.
yet i can also label it as 15 16 17 18 ?
Here is what concerns me on the bullish side of the market .
technically we are entering a bearish cycle on april 16th and this cycle runs into late june early july .ill note the exact dates . april 16 to may 21 trend
may 21 to june 4 reversal of that trend and june 4 into june 27-july 6th very strong movement .
if this bearish cycle inverted
( was bullish ) the $NYA did complete point 20 and the dow will need to be labeled at point 18 now
and is either beginning point 19 or is about to.If the bear cycle is truly bearish the market would begin a choppy down trend from April 16th 20th and would accelerate lower from june 4th .
lastly my larger cycles are all pointing lower into nov 2012-feb 2013. the only thing keeping me somewhat bullish at this juncture is the pattern of the 3 peaks domed house which is not complete .
points 19 through 20 are basically a 5 wave movement . the Dow looks much better if labeled as point 15 march 16th and point 16 now .
the bear cycle we are about to enter is a powerful cycle that i must respect ( i have followed it and traded with it every year for almost a decade and i know how it works and it is powerful ) Bottom line : The trend that begins April 16th will point to the direction of the market into June 27th July 6th . June 4th-8th is a powerful date to pay attention to this year.
From July 19th 2012 to Feb 12 2013
is another powerful swing period .
Summation : If the 3 peaks domed house pattern began July 2 2010
and Point 15 was march 16th 2012 on the Dow and the bear cycle will prove to be inverted then point 23 will come in July 2012 . point 28
would ideally be Feb 12th 2013 .
Disregarding the pattern we are on the bearish side of many cycles and the overall market is in the process of rolling over to the downside .The key to everything will be how the market starts to trend From April 16th into may 21 if it is a choppy yet upwards trend then i will gain confidence in the 3 peaks domed house pattern and would ideally be looking for a point 21 peak around mid June early July. and the point 23 peak
should complete mid July and should also correlate with Lindsay time spans