Monday, May 07, 2012

Guesstimates on May 7, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1352-1362. The ES broke below 1375 decisively Friday and in Asian trading last night took out the 1352.50 April 10 low while dropping as low as 1342.50. The ES has since rallied 17 points and I think the market will climb further to 1378 or so before testing and probably breaking the 1342.50 low. The ultimate low of the reaction will probably develop in the 1320-30 range. I still think this is a reaction in an ongoing bull market and expect to see the market trade well over 1420 during the coming months.   
QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.
June Crude: Support at 100 has been decisively broken. It looks like the market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level was broken and now 18.50 looks like support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: The ES has established a new reaction low and AAPL is likely to do so too. However there is strong support near 520 and that is the worst I expect to see on the downside before AAPL moves to new bull market highs.  


observer said...

Carl, it is holding above the 1362 level so far. Does that have any significance.

mike said...

carl, are you surprised by the markets strength today. does the early dip this morning in the futures mark the low for the correction. thanks

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I have beat to death my thoughts on the 3 peaks domed house pattern and have read your updated version .
My thinking though is still unchanged the recent pull back is point 18 and points 19 through 23 should be a 5 wave move . the 13800-13876 range seems like it has some validity in the dow . 1457 1461 spx cash index is my upside target there ( 2 equal percent moves )
i dug through lindsays 3 peaks patterns the other day and came across his count that i put together a while ago . the 1910 1913 pattern . i decided to dig further and overlaid it using the 2010 swing low just to see how well it looked to today's count im working with . Carl i think it would be prudent for you to check that out . I realize nothing ever works exact yet the swings are fairly accurate . my main bias was to just see the overall theme
still think we have point 17 complete and point 18 maybe complete . May 21 should be a high of sorts late may into June 4 a low and then a strong move upwards
would complete in mid to late June early July ( probably pt 22 )
from mid to July though ( July 19 ) we enter yet another bearish cycle which runs into Feb 2013 .
good luck