Friday, May 18, 2012

Guesstimates on May 18, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1301-1316. I think the end of the drop from 1419.75 is imminent.
QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is back to the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
June Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – June Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  
SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: AAPL is headed for 520. From there  a move above the 644 high will start. 

4 comments:

Ali said...

This drop reminds me of july 2011... you said the bottom is comming, but SPX just kept goin down every day. This time we might get down below 2011-lows.

PRB said...

This drop looks very familar to march 2007. MA and RSI

Graph1159 said...

I think the odds have just crossed 50% that we are in a bear market. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the following count looks probable:
May-October 2011: Wave A
October 2011-April 2012: Wave B
Wave C underway

Should the bear market unfold, public pessimism about the economy will rise dramatically. The result will probably be the election of Mitt Romney in November.

dcatlowpj said...

Time to run a different analysis, as we will see a bounce next week with more downside.

Buy the cheaper high delta SPY puts.

Made $10K last week on only 20 contracts.

Carl, good work!