Thursday, May 03, 2012
It looks to me like the April 10, 2012 low will hold and that the market is headed for at least 1465 and quite possibly for 1575. You can see that the April 10 low developed just below the rising 50 day moving average and at the rising blue dash trend line I have drawn. Not only that but at the low the market had dropped just a shade less than it had during the December 2011 reaction (blue dash rectangles). And the S&P was only about 10 points below its 2011 high (green dash line) - normally markets find support near old high points once they have advanced far enough above them.
All in all it looks like the April 10 low ended a normal bull market reaction. How far up might the market go from that low around 1360? I see two obvious measuring sticks. The first is the rally from November 25, 2011 to December 8, 2011 which carried the S&P up about 105 points. A similar rally from 1360 would put the market at 1465.The second measuring stick is the rally from the October 4 low to the October 27 high in 2011. That rally was about 215 points. Adding that to 1360 gives an upside target of 1575, just about the level of the 2007 bull market top.