Guesstimates on May 8, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: I am beginning to think that the drop below the April 10 low at 1352.50 which carried the ES to 1342.50 Sunday night was a shakeout. If so the ES won't spend much if any time below 1352.50 and the market will be headed above 1419.75. Any tendency to trade below 1352.50 will mean that the ES will continue its drop into the 1320-30 zone. In either case I think we are seeing a normal reaction in a bull market and I think we will also see the ES trade well above 1420 during the coming months.

QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: Support at 100 has been decisively broken. It looks like the market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support now is at 28.50 (not 18.50  as I mistakenly wrote yesterday).

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: The ES has probably its reaction low on a shakeout below 1352.50. If so AAPL will probably hold above its reaction low at 555. If it doesn't then I would expect a drop to strong support at 520. In either case a move to new highs above 644 is in the cards.