Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Guesstimates on September 18, 2012



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1448-62.  The ES is headed much higher over the next few months. Support beneath the market now is at 1430.
QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): The Fed announcement is going to push bond yields much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target is 2.50% .
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3450.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The only fly in this bearish ointment is the central bank of Japan. If they decide to support the yen then they implicitly will be embarking on a course parallel to the Fed and that would be very bullish for the Japanese stock market.
November Crude: The market has broken past all resistance level. It now is on its way to the 110-115 zone.
GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.
Google: Google is headed up to 750.
Apple: AAPL  has reached the 690-700 zone. Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.

3 comments:

lexus300rb said...

Carl, I would assume the doomed house is dead ahead or thereabouts, but there is also a shape forming on the yearly charts for the S&P providing the market stays under 2007's yearly high of 1576. That shape would be a huge head and shoulders. Either your house or the H&S tops are coming due in due time, sooner I hope than later.

Graph1159 said...

Hi Lexus,
Speaking of long term scary patters, I've read about the reverse of Three Peaks and a Domed House, in which the Domed House comes first. I then looked at the long term Dow chart and considered this:
Point 10: 1932
Points 11-14: 1937-1942
Points 15-20: 1966-1982
Points 21-25: 2000 - 2012?
Yikes!!!!!
Well, I don't really think that this pattern will unfold. But it did get my attention.

Ali said...

Carl - How much can S&P500 crash if Spain becomes bankrupt? Or if China attacks Japan? Or Israel attacks Iran?

There are too many grey swans out there that are becoming black...