Friday, September 21, 2012

Guesstimates on September 21, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1455-65.  The ES is headed much higher over the next few months. Support beneath the market now is at 1430.
QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): The Fed announcement is going to push bond yields much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The Japanese central bank has announced an increase in their own program of quantitative easing. But they don't have as much credibility on this score as the Fed does so I think the dollar-yen  will continue its drop to 75. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached. November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.
GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.
Google: Google is headed up to 750.
Apple: AAPL  has reached the 690-700 zone. Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Just something to consider .
Im looking at this from 2 different
perspectives so there is variables .
Dow monthly chart looking for a mid section count ( i understand not technically to Lindsay )
point E April - June 2010
point F April - June 2011
Point G Now
The Jan Feb drop in year 2010
looks similar to the may June drop
in 2012 ( this year )
This would imply a long decline into Jan Feb 2015 ( or a sideways
choppy market until then )
That is the broad Brush
shorter term
Point E April May 2011
point F march April may 2012
Point G Now .
This would imply a shorter decline
into Jan 2014 .
Hence i would still favor From now
into the end of next year at a minimum a difficult market .
Maybe it feels and looks like 2004
2005 where its just sideways i do not have an opinion at this point in time .
While it seems to early to claim the broad view over the shorter i favor the broader view because it projects the next high ( assuming this correct )in DEC 2019 .
the year 2018 is the benner business high .
Bottom line : from now into Oct 9th 12th the market must be viewed as topping or topped in my opinion
yet the Dow based on my research
really has no business being above
13629.55 if i am to be proven correct .
the NASDAQ Comp rose from Oct 2002 to Oct 2007 158.14486 %
taking this same rise from the low in march 2009 you would look at 3266.87 ( its not to far away now )
oct 2002 to oct 2007 is 60 months
adding 60 months to oct 2007 you get oct 2012 ( LOW TO HIGH TO HIGH )
hence we would not expect the NASDAQ comp to rise much further either if all this is to come together .
Lastly Just some odd stuff to look at for your own research .
Ill keep it simple . Look up when the solar eclipses are that are before a lunar eclipse . take the date of the solar eclipse and count backwards 30 days . then see what has happened historically from that date into the solar eclipse. its not prefect yet it is pretty impressive .
Good Luck