Friday, September 07, 2012

Guesstimates on September 7, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1431-1444.  The ES is headed well over 1450 but first it is likely to react from the vicinity of 1442 which is the level of the May 2008 top.  
QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The bond market is anticipating a revival of economic activity in the US. The 10 year yield  could easily push  to 2.50% or even higher.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market at 1.2600 has been broken. Yesterday the ECB announced its intention to support the Euro by sterilizing its prospective bond purchases. It rarely pays to fight a central bank intent on supporting its currency. Given the likelihood of further easing by the US Fed I think the monetary situation favors more upside in the  Euro from here. 1.2950 and 1.3450 are my next upside targets.  
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
October Crude: The market should stop near 96.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.
GLD – December Gold:   The market dropped a few weeks ago to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529 and has started to rally. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - December Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.
Apple: AAPL  is headed to 690-700.  Support stands at 645.

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