Thursday, December 20, 2012

Guesstimates on December20, 2012



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1419-1435. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.
QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher. meatime support is at 1655.
March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  Support is at 30.50.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

4 comments:

Art Goldberg said...

Silver futures support breached. SI_F

pimaCanyon said...

Kishore,

You wrote: "The Sept-Nov sell-off retraced 61.2% of the rally from June-Sept 2012. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will exceed the Sept top."

But if you look at the SPX chart, here's what you'll find:

1) The drop into the 11/25/11 low retraced exactly 62 percent of the rally that preceded. After the drop, the market went on to make new highs.
2) The drop into the 6/4/12 low retraced almost, but not quite, 62 percent of the rally that preceded it. After the drop, the market went on to make new highs.
3) The drop into the 10/4/11 low retraced more than 62 percent of the rally that preceded it (actually about 80 percent retracement). After that drop, the market went on to make new highs.

Kishore said...

pimaCanyon, Oct 2011 was the culmination of wave 4. We have had three peaks since then. Sept 2012 was the third peak. Upon retracement of 61.8% after the third peak, the odds are in favor of a trend reversal. If the retracement into Nov 2012 was wave A down, we should now be wave C down.

The time stamp on your posting shows that it posted after ES went limit down at 5:18 pm. Maybe, you wrote it earlier.

Kishore said...

pimaCanyon, Correction on the time stamp. I am on Pacific time. So, the /ES limit down was at 8:18 pm EST, long after your posting.