Friday, December 21, 2012

Guesstimates on December 21, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Last night the market got a push off the fiscal cliff, dropping as low as 1391.25. A close today below 1404 would have bearish implications. In the mean time I am estimating a day session range of 1408-1425.
QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
February Gold:  The market closed bloe 1655 support yesterday. The implication is that it is headed back down to its trading range low at 1520.
March Silver: Silver closed below 30.50 support yesterday. The implication is that it is headed back to 26.00.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.


john said...

1418 should and holding as support .buying point but how far upward it goes one like me can guess as it is friday ,too.
How far it goes upward,It Is Friday ,too.
Thank You and MerryChristmas and a very happy,healthy and prosperous 2013 to you and your all loved ones.
Respect you so much ,Sir !

Rob said...

I left a comment last week where I said we would rally until my positive/negative numbers reach a certain point. I would like to retract that. Still a good chance that will happen. But I'm very worried about my short-term numbers showing way too much interest on the positive side. I assume they're thinking the fiscal cliff will be resolved and we'll go zooming upward. And then of course we have the stunningly perfect potential stopping point of this rally, just short of the previous highs, a possible point 27. Pattern trumps data.