Friday, October 19, 2012

Guesstimates on October 19, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1440-1451. The market is on its way up to 1480-90. But the ES is in a danger zone. Should support in the 1420-25 range fail a substantial decline will  begin.
QQQ:  The QQQ is in a danger zone and I will key off the action of the S&P to determine if the up trend has been reversed.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.
GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.
Google: Google broke support at 700 yesterday on the earnings news. There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   
Apple:  Apple broke below 645 support but I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.


Kishore said...

We all have seen overnight big moves in the Futures market. It takes less money to manipulate the futures when the stock market is closed.

The manipulators should be VERY busy over weekend and the time until the elections are over. Those with money, majority of them Republicans, may try to crash the market before the elections as this may help Obama lose.

Bernanke will fight till his printers are broken.

In short, it is PURE GAMBLING till the elections are over.

My last predication of at least one more upswing came and went faster than it could be a acted upon.

Yesterday there was a post by "Win" for going long. I wonder what he actually did?

Caution is the name of the game.

PRB said...

There is an observation about market tops I wonder if someone could identify with here. The xlf: spy ratio indicated to me that all the $ pumped into the economy are recently starting to take hold as of this year. Comparing that to the last Bull Run it was a full year before that ratio topped out and another before the market topped. Also a positive divergence in the MACD lends me to believe there is life left in this bull. If the 50 day is rejected here and does not make a higher high then the financial boost has failed.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
when looking at the dow
i think it is premature to call
point 24 in place just yet .
I understand how you come to that
thought process yet respectfully argument sits with the placement of point 22 .i placed aug 30 at 13000.71 on close and left it there despite it being inside the prior ranges . the 1910 1913 overlay still is showing similarities that are to close to ignore . therefore a move to 1300 is the better fit for a point 24 low .cyclically if this is correct then the dow should be testing 13000 into and surrounding the elections . a drop Monday and possibly a reversal Tuesday would imply a flat to up week next week yet i still view all of this as a larger pattern in which we are still moving from point 23 towards point 24 which technically began Sept 14th ( broad market view using a combination of several index's ) the steepest portion of the sell off ( points 25 or in your thought point 27 ) would being mid to late November.
early to mid December is where this shorter term cycle ends
and is technically called as a low possibly a panic low .
lastly and this is a bit speculative , if i have this all correlated correctly the Dow would be in the 11043-10650 range in early December .
the 3 peaks domed house though if you look at the 1910-1913 pattern would drop into Feb march which would look complete and then there was an additional drop which may or may not come . several bearish cycles end Feb 12 2013 .
the dow getting above 13629 and staying there and moving higher
would imply a break out and new highs would follow , i just don't see that happening at this juncture . from a very longer term point of view i consider the Jan march 2000 peak point 15 of a very huge long term 3 peaks domed house pattern . point 16 the 2002 lows point 17 the 2007 highs point 18 the 2009 lows and this high being point 19 . point 20 is still due . the 2018 2019 time frame will should be a point 21 high
if the 2020-2021 period is a low pt ( 12 yrs 8 months from the 2007 top ) it will most likely be a long term point 22 low . all very long term thoughts here yet im sticking to this view until proven wrong .
Bottom line : im short term bearish yet very long term bullish
the dow holding above 8800 as far as im concerned is all that matters . we will see soon enough how ugly this drop becomes
good luck