Friday, October 12, 2012

Guesstimates on October 12, 2012



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1426-1438. The market should again hold support in the 1420-25 range and then start a move up to above 1468.  The ES is in a danger zone. Should support in the 1420-25 range fail a substantial decline will probably begin.
QQQ:  The QQQ is in a danger zone and I will key off the action of the S&P to determine if the up trend has been reversed.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.
November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.
GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.
SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.
Google: Google has reached.  Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  
Apple:  Apple broke below 645 support but I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.

9 comments:

David SKerritt said...

Wait a minute: Regarding the ES for weeks you have said, "the market is now on its way above
1468. The ES is headed much higher over the next few months.

Then Wednesday you updated and said, "The market should again hold support in the 1420-25 range and then start a move up to above 1468. The ES is headed much higher over the next few months."

Now today you update to say, "The market should again hold support in the 1420-25 range and then start a move up to above 1468. The ES is in a danger zone. Should support in the 1420-25 range fail a substantial decline will probably begin.

I like words like "will" vs. "should". I can tell when your confidence is starting to wain as you put in hedge terms like "should" instead of "will".

Carl Futia said...

confidence has nothing to do with it. I try to assess the significance of the market's action and associated factors and change my views accordingly. When the facts change I change my mind - what do you do, sir?

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I admire your bullish outlook as well
as your ability to change your view based on the data presented in front of you as it changes .
if the dow comes down and tests the 200 day moving average near 13000
i will have to call it point 24
that said i still believe we are in a bearish cycle that runs into the elections .also i will note this
and its my own thoughts here based on what i have been testing . using a simple up 1 ofr an up day and down 1 for a down day the market has been putting in lower highs and lower lows since mid march ,hence the bias in terms of time says the market has been declining for the past 7 months
yes i know that price rules yet the mindset has been bearish for months .lastly short term my indicators are becoming oversold
which is fine if we are in a bull market yet in a bear market those indicators should become extremely oversold .
for the poster above .
you should really read the broad picture Carl paints from time to time and not just quote the latest post . an example , where i live the news was it was to rain today
and as i look out the window i see sunshine , should i blame the weather man ? the data changes and as we attempt to forecast what we think might happen we still need to see the signals that we are correct or not in our assessment before we can conclude we are correct and the market is always correct our job is then to make the assessment then risk our money and then have the market prove that assessment correct. if the market proves us wrong we must accept that and move forward
Carl changing his mind is a good thing as it shows he has the ability to accept there is an error in his analysis yet if you were to read his longer term posts and just move the cursor down the page a small amount you will see the risks pointed out . trading from my point of view is all about asking yourself what if im wrong and if i am wrong what would the market do . then if i see those signs i do not like i change my mind also .
nuff said and sorry for the rant Carl
Joe

Kishore said...

People who want "sure bets" should stay away from the casino. Wall Street is even worse than a regular casino. It is a den of thieves, i.e. the market manipulators. Most people who bet here lose money. Only a few people like Carl, with the proper mindset and training can snatch it from the the thieves. Performance is all that counts and I have rarely seen anyone as sharing and consistent as Carl. However, if someone lacks comprehension, it is not fare to blame it on what Carl "said".

Kishore said...

For whatever it is worth, the market should be rebounding strongly one more time at least.

This "predication" is without any cost to you or any guarantees, so take it or leave it.

Always blame no one but yourself if you lose money but if you follow my "advice" and make money, send a check to your favorite charity.

The stick market has taught me to snub my ego. What a priceless lesson!

Good luck to all!

pimaCanyon said...

The worst thing a trader can do is get married to a position or married to an expectation for a market. As Carl said, when conditions change, he changes his views accordingly. It's called reading the market, letting the market tell you where it's going, instead of you trying to tell it where to go.

Great weekend to all!

john said...

It seems like Draghi wants to make a
big statement to the market!! Seriously!
I feel Draghi will say something sweet to the market once more and there again > the Jul 26
“bumblebee” speech like EVENT !
Keep learning silently from Carl !
Thanks and a great weekend to all!

john said...

Sentiment is mixed.
I would rather call it pretty NEGATIVE ,only fear is from expected statement from Draghi soon as few reliable sources from Europa.
My concern now is on breaking trading range S+P500 1430-1470,extremely cautious trading unless support levels are held.

Jack said...

Good work Carl. Your forecast have an uncanny accuracy. I look forward to your comments everyday.