Late Stock Market Update

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. At the top of this post you will see a chart of the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange (black line) and the 5 day moving average of this number (purple line). I last commented on the stock market here.

Today the market broke sharply late in the day and made a new low for regular hours trading. I think it is worthy of notice that the daily count of the advancing issues stayed well above the low point it established last week. This is a very minor bullish divergence but given today's very wide range and close near the low of the range I am willing to give it added importance.

In any event I think that the swing down from today's high will end early tomorrow not far from today's low. My best guess is that the 1450 level in the S&P and the 144.20 level in the Spiders will prove to be support, while the corresponding level in the Q's is 47.30. All three markets should then rally substantially, the S&P's to 1500, the Spiders to 149.50, and the Q's to 48.50.

After this rally I think that the market will take another tumble, this time to 1435 in the S&P's, 143.00 in the Spiders, and 46.50 in the Q's. At those levels a very important low is likely to develop and I expect the market to rally from there to new bull market highs.

Guesstimates on July 31, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s have rallied nearly 40 points from yesterday’s early morning low at 1455 but should encounter resistance in the 1500-05 zone (Spider resistance is at 149.50). The next development should be a break to 1465 (146.00 Spiders) followed by another rally attempt. Looking a little further ahead I think we shall see the S&P’s drop to 1435 (143.00 Spiders) over the next 10 days. Once this reaction is complete I believe that the stock market will rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.60. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should soon begin an extended drop to 103 or so. The 110-00 level is strong resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Resistance is 76.90 and I am guessing that crude oil will stall there. I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Major, Minor, Mini 3 Peaks and Domed Houses

I have been following various examples of George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Domed House formation on this blog for two years. My last post on this subject can be found here. All of my George Lindsay posts can be found here.

The first chart above this post shows the most recent development in the market which can easily be interpreted in the context of the Three Peaks and a Domed House formation. It is only a small, "mini" formation. A big, "major" formation shows at least a 6 month interval between the first peak (point 3) and the third peak (point 7). But in this most recent formation we have only about a 6 week interval between the first and third peak.

If this is indeed a mini- 3P and DH we can conclude that the market will follow roughly the pattern shown by the purple lines in the first chart. Of most significance is the prognosis that new bull market highs lie dead ahead. The uncertain aspect of any mini formation is the timing of point 23 which should coincide with the bull market top. In this case there is a clearly defined, compact top in mid-July and from this a Lindsay top-to-top count of three months and 15 days brings us to a projected point 23 around November 4.

This date coincides nicely with the prognosis offered by the minor Three Peaks and a Dome House which is labeled in the second chart above this post. In this formation the recent reaction fits nicely as the last downswing in the "five reversals" part of the domed house (points 15 through 20). The prognosis here too is for new bull market highs dead ahead. The 7 month and 10 day time interval which is standard for projecting point 23 in a Domed house is generally started at point 14. In this case it calls for a top near November 8.

The third chart above this post shows the progress of a full-blown major Three Peaks and a Domed House. The first peak in this formation (point 3) is not shown on the chart but occurred in January of 2006. Even though the formation appears to have timed the recent top exactly I still think it is the least likely alternative of the three domed houses shown above this post. However, if the market should rally from current levels into September without making new bull market highs I shall probably change my mind about this. Such a development would be particularly significant if the advancing issues oscillators show weakness on the rally to what could turn out to be point 25 in September.

Guesstimates on July 30, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Late Friday the S&P’s dropped below the 1465-70 support zone. I think we shall see a 30-40 point rally and then a move a little lower to perhaps the 1435 level. The corresponding target in the Spiders will be 143.00. Once this reaction is complete I believe that the stock market will rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.60. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should soon begin an extended drop to 103 or so. The 110-00 level is strong resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be follwed by a move to 130.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Resistance today is again 76.90 and I am guessing that crude oil will stall there. I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Comments Policy

I have been blogging for more than two years but have not yet said anything about how comments on my posts are treated.

The first thing to keep in mind when commenting is that all comments are moderated. This means that I see them before they appear and choose whether or not to publish them.

I will not publish any comment that consists of ad hominem vituperation directed either at me or at another commenter. I believe that good manners are a mark of intelligence. On the other hand I welcome reasoned criticism and don't mind people disagreeing with me.

I generally make no specific response to comments since I spend most of my time trading the markets and doing mathematics. However, I do note requests made by those who comment and sometimes these comments do influence what I choose to post.

I never respond to requests for an updated analysis of an individual stock or commodity or to a previous post. This blog is free to anyone who wants to read it and I feel no obligation to post more than I do on the subjects which interest me.

Note to Traders: If you want to post a trade or specific prediction in my comments section you must sign your comment by including your name, initials, or some other identifier. If you don't do this I will not publish your comment.

Death of the Bull Market ?

Is the bull market which started from the 2002 low at 768 in the S&P and 7200 in the Dow over? I don't think so. In my experience the market does not announce a long term top with a spectacular 10 day drop from its all-time high.

Instead I think it more likely that we shall see new all-time highs later this year and that the nearly 100 point drop in the S&P and 700 point drop in the Dow has brought the market close to an important low. I think that at yesterday's intraday low at 1465 in the cash S&P and 13330 in the Dow the averages were at worst only 1-3% from the ultimate low of this reaction.

One reason that encourages me in this view is that the drop has been accompanied by widely known, bad news on the front pages of many newspapers. In my experience the start of a bear market is accompanied by good news about the economy. Only towards the middle and end of the bear market does the bad news occupy the front pages and magazine covers.

To illustrate my point take a look above this post at the front pages of The New York Times which appeared this morning and this past Wednesday. Both front pages featured bearish stories about the sub-prime lending problems and the associated "flight from risk". I have always made money fading the Times and I don't think this will be an exception to the rule.

Guesstimates on July 27, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s will find support in the 1465-70 zone and the Spiders near 146.00. Meantime resistance is at 1505 in the futures and 149.80 in the Spiders. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 47.60. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should soon begin and extended drop to 103 or so. The 110-00 level is strong resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: The market broke below 119.80 yesterday but I don’t think this means much. Secondary support is at 118.80. Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Resistance today is at 76.90 and I am guessing that crude oil will stall there. I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Tale of the Tape

The last tale can be found here.

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support is at 498. Next upside target is 600.

IBM: 120 should prove to be strong resistance. The odds are that IBM is done for this bull market. .

GS: I think GS should hold support near 183 and rally to 250.

CME: Support is at 505. I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.

MO: Support is at 68. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 230.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Upside target is 155. Support is 122.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Next upside target is 185. Meantime support is at 124.

NYX: It looks like NYX is headed for 63.

NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. I think the recent high near 148 will hold and that the 100 level will be seen later this year.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Downside target is 50, resistance above the market is at 61.

SHLD: I think the bull market in SHLD is over. Resistance above the market is at 168. Next downside target is 132.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Upside target is now 105. Support is at 65.

EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 43 in a few months.

WMT: Headed for strong resistance at 55. Support is at 48.

Stock Market Update

The S&P's have broken well below the 1500 target (149.00 in the Spiders) and didn't stablize as I thought they were doing in my earlier post.

I conclude that the futures are headed for the 1465-70 zone and the Spiders for 146.00 - 146.50. From there a rally of 30-40 points in the futures should be the next development.

The Bond Market

Here are daily charts of the September T-bond futures, the yield on the 30 year treasury bond, and the yield on the 10 year treasury note. I last commented on the bond market here.

I think the drop in yields and the rally in futures which started in mid-June is over. There is strong resistance in the futures in the 109-16 to 110-00 zone. I think the 4.95% yield in the 30 year bond and the 4.85% yield in the 10 year note will be the lowest yields seen for the next few months.

I expect the futures to drop to the 103 level by mid-October and think the 30 year yield will advance to 5.60% and the 10 year yield to 5.50% during that time. After that I think a big drop in yields lasting a year or so will develop.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

I think the market has begun to stabilize after the big drop from yesterday's close. The S&P's and the Spiders both broke below the 1500 and 149.00 targets but I still think a substantial rally lies dead ahead.

However, the market is extremely oversold as measured by my 10 and 20 day moving averages of the daily advancing issues number. Generally significant lows in the averages occur several days after the low in these oscillators. So at the moment I shall look for a rally in the futures to 1521 and in the Spiders to 151.20. After this rally I think it likely that the futures will againb drop significantly, this time down to 1470 and the Spiders to 146.00 or so before a move to new bull market highs can begin.

Guesstimates on July 26, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed for 1500 and the Spiders for 149.00. Today resistance is again at 1531 and 152.10 respectively. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 48.80. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have nearly reached their upside target at 109-16. The rally from 104-16 is likely to end here. Support in TLT is at 85.50 and the upside target is 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue a bit further to 107-08 before the rally ends. Support is at 105-20.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 119.80. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Resistance today is at 76.90 and I am guessing that crude oil will stall there. I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50. It now looks like August gold will make it up to 695 before heading downward once more.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1370 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Tale of the Tape

The last tale can be found here.


LEADERS:

GOOG: Support is at 498. Next upside target is 600.

IBM: 120 should prove to be strong resistance. The odds are that IBM is done for this bull market. .

GS: I think GS should hold support near 200 and rally to 250.

CME: Support is at 535. I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.

MO: Support is at 68. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 230.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Upside target is 155. Support is 122.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Next upside target is 185. Meantime support is at 140.

NYX: It looks like NYX is headed for 90. From there it will drop below 70. I am abandoning my expectation for a new bull market high anytime this year.

NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. I think the recent high near 148 will hold and that the 100 level will be seen later this year.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Downside target is 50, resistance above the market is at 61.

SHLD: I think the bull market in SHLD is over. Resistance above the market is at 168. Next downside target is 145.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Upside target is now 105. Support is at 65.

EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 43 in a few months.

WMT: Headed for strong resistance at 55. Support is at 48.

Guesstimates on July 25, 9:00 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed for 1500 and the Spiders for 149.00. Today resistance is at 1531 and 152.10 respectively. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should hold support near 107-28. Next upside target is 109-16 and there the rally from 104-16 is likely to end. Support in TLT is at 85.50 and the upside target is 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue a bit further to 107-08 before the rally ends. Support is at 105-20.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 119.80. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like resistance near 76.20 has stalled crude oil and I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down from here. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50. It now looks like August gold will make it up to 695 before heading downward once more.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1370 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

So far the futures have held support at 1535 but I don't like the technical situation.
The market has put in two lower tops since the July 16 high. There has been no bounce from what should be strong support near 1535. Moreover, today's advancing issues number (so far) is the lowest seen in more than six weeks, a situation which suggests that the drop is gathering steam rather than slowing down. For these reasons I think that the futures are about to continue their reaction and drop down to what I think is the next significant support level near 1500. The Spiders should reach 149.00 and the Q's (which have been strong than the S&P) will probably hold the 49.00 level.

I still think that the bull market which started from the 768 S&P low in 2002 is not yet complete. The next leg up should carry the futures to 1596, the Spiders to 158.50 and the Q's into the 53-55 range.

Guesstimates on July 24, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The rally yesterday to 1555 resistance in the S&P’s looks like a second lower top relative to the July 16 top. This makes me believe that support near 1535 will not hold. If it is broken in any significant way the market will drop all the way to 1500 or so before the next rally can begin. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached the short term target aqti 108-20 but should hold support near 107-28. Next upside target is 109-16 and there the rally from 104-16 is likely to end. Support in TLT is at 85.50 and the upside target is 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached the 106-16 target but should continue a bit further to 107-08 before the rally ends. Support is at 105-20.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 119.80. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like resistance near 76.20 has stalled crude oil and I think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both should turn down from here. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50. It now looks like August gold will make it up to 695 before heading downward once more.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1370 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Guesstimates on July 23, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Resistance in the S&P’s today is at 1555 and I still think the market will drop to 1535 or a bit lower before this reaction is over. Resistance in the Spiders is 154.50 and the downside target is 152.50. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude is getting close to the 76.20 target. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH still has a shot at 190. The 57.80 level now looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50. It now looks like August gold will make it up to 695 before heading downward once more.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1370 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Buyout Stocks

Here are daily bar charts of two of the companies whose principal activites are fueling the private equity buyout boom which has fueled the current bull market, Goldman Sachs and the Blackstone Group.

In the last Tale of the Tape I said that I thought GS was about to break above resistance at 233 and move to its next upside target. Instead the reaction from the 233 level has continued and I think that GS will drop to 200 or so before its bull market resumes. I still think that the 250 level will be seen later this year.

The Blackstone Group (BX) went public at 31, rallied the next day to its high at 38 and has been coming down ever since. I think it will find support near 23.75 which is 5/8 of the 38 high. After some sideways action I Expect to see BX rally to 50.

I do not think the buyout boom is even close to being over. You can see the front cover of the Economist magazine a couple of weeks ago at the top of this post. It shows "private equity man" about to tumble into the abyss. I would find this cover more bullish if it came after a substantial drop in the stocks of the buyout barrons. Nonetheless, I think it is unlikely that the Economist has called the top of the private equity boom, so I think GS and BX are still in bull markets.

Breadth of the Market

Here are two charts which are saying that the recent move to new bull market highs isn't as strong as it looks. I last commented on the advancing issues number here.

The first chart above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price (black line) and the 10 day moving average of this number (red line). Notice that the moving average has actually dropped to oversold territory even as the Dow closed at a new high yesterday!

I think this divergence is telling us two things. First, the averages are likely to head lower the next few days. Second, since the oscillator is already in oversold territory, the averages are not likely to drop much from current levels before another rally begins.

The second chart above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues in the S&P 500 which are trading above their 200 day moving averages. Note that the line has dropped to below the short term oversold levels it reached last March. I believe this indicator is sending the same message as the advancing issues oscillator.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that the S&P would probably drop again to the low of its recent trading range. My downside targets are shown on the charts above this post: 1535 in the futures and 152.50 in the Spiders. Yesterday the market traded in a narrow range all day just below its previous top and this I regard as bearish action. The weakness yesterday and again early today reinforces this prognosis. I also don't like the look of the advancing issues oscillators (see the next post).

Still, it is important to remember that this is still a bull market. I see no sign that it is over and after the reaction is complete I expect to see the futures rally to 1596 and the Spiders to 158.50.

Guesstimates on July 20, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market yesterday traded in a narrow range just below its previous top and I also don’t like the looks of the advance-decline oscillators at the moment. For these reasons I think the market is about to take another trip down, probably to 1535 in the futures and 152.50 in the Spiders. Once the break is over I shall be expecting a move to 1596 and 158.50 respectively.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is getting close to the 76.20 target. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH still has a shot at 190. The 57.80 level now looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 66. I think 675 resistance is ending the rally in gold.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Google dropped below 532 support after the close yesterday on the earning’s news. I think the market will next find support near 497 and then resume its rally. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Guesstimates on July 19, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s only made it down to 1543, shy of my 1537 target but the subsequent strength indicates that the reaction is over and that the market is on its way to 1596. The Spiders are headed for 158.50.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached the short term target at 50.00. Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is getting close to the 76.20 target. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH still has a shot at 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 66. August gold has moved well above its resistance at 665 but GLD and silver are still holding their resistance levels, so I think 675 will end the rally in gold.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Next upside target is 580-85. Support is at 532. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.

I think a modest correction has started but it shouldn't last more than a couple of trading days. I see support in the futures at 1537, in the Spiders at 152.50 and in the Q's at 49.20. Once this reaction is complete I expect another move upward to the targets you see on the charts.

Guesstimates on July 18, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market has begun a reaction and the most probably downside target is 1537 in the S&P’s and 152.20 in the Spiders. After this reaction is complete I think the S&P’s will head for the next upside target at 1596 and the Spiders will head for 158.50.


QQQQ: The Q’s have reached the short term target at 50.00. Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: So far resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Next upside target is 580-85. Support is at 532. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Guesstimates on July 17, 9:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market has nearly reached the short term upside targets of 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. I think we shall see some sort or reaction of perhaps 20-25 S&P points develop from here, but I also expect to see the S&P’s trade well above the 1600 level later this year.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached the short term target at 50.00. Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: So far resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support is at 530. Next upside target is 583.

IBM: 112 is the next upside target.

GS: I think GS is about to move above 233 resistance and rally to 250. Support now is at 210.

CME: Support is at 535. I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.

MO: Support is at 68. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 230.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 112. Upside target is 150.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Next upside target is 185. Meantime support is at 134.

NYX: It looks like NYX is headed for 90. From there it will drop below 70. I am abandoning my expectation for a new bull market high anytime this year.

NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. I think the recent high near 148 will hold and that the 100 level will be seen later this year.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Downside target is 50, resistance above the market is at 61.

SHLD: I think the bull market in SHLD is over. Resistance above the market is at 168. Next downside target is 145.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Resistance is at 76. Support is at 65.

EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 43 in a few months.

WMT: Headed for strong resistance at 55. Support is at 48.

Guesstimates on July 16, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market has nearly reached the short term upside targets of 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. I think we shall see some sort or reaction of perhaps 20-25 S&P points develop from here, but I also expect to see the S&P’s trade well above the 1600 level later this year.

QQQQ: The Q’s have nearly reached the short term target at 50.00. Support is at 49.00. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: So far resistance at 137.80 is stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: Google reached the short term target of 552 Friday but its up move as yet shows no sign of ending. My best guess is that my long standing 564 target will prove to be too conservative and that Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

Guesstimates on July 13, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market is headed to the upside targets of 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. I expect to see the S&P’s trade well above the 1600 level later this year.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed upward to the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 137.80 and any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1330 and then head below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures and the Spiders. I last commented on these markets here.

As you can see the market has accelerated back above the 1530 level early today, thus cancelling my interpretation of the significance of its break below 1530 two days ago. We now can see two consecutive higher lows since the late June low and this is generally a very bullish configuration. I think the S&P's are headed for 1570 and the Spiders for 155.50. The Q's should reach the 50.00 level at the same time.

There is more to go after these prelimary targets are reached. By November I think that the S&P's will have rallied at least to 1630.

Domed House Update

Here is daily chart showing the domed house portion of a minor Three Peaks and a Domed House. I last commented on this formation here.

This domed house is evolving pretty much as expected so far. The Dow still seems to be in the midst of the "five reversals" portion of the domed house which consists of points 15 through 20. There is some chance that yesterday's low was actually point 20 but this makes little practical difference for the broader implications of this formation which I have drawn on the chart.

The Dow appears headed for point 23 which is due in November at roughly the 14600 level in the Dow.

Guesstimates on July 12, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I still think the S&P’s are headed back to 1490 and the Spiders to 147.50. Only closes today above 1532 and 152.20 would change my mind. In any case once this reaction is complete the upside targets will be 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached 48.70. I still think the trend is upward and the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 137.80 and any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.

Guesstimates on July 11, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I now think the S&P’s are headed back to 1490 and the Spiders to 147.50. Once this reaction is complete the upside targets will be 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached 48.70. I still think the trend is upward and the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 108-20. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 137.80 and any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 120.70. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these charts here.

The futures didn't hold support at 1530 so I now think the market is headed back down to the low of its trading range near 1490. This would bring the Spiders down to 147.50 or so and the Q's to 47.75.

After these lows are established I think we shall see a rally to new bull market highs.

Google

Here is a weekly chart of Google. I last commented on this stock here.

Google continues its upward march to the tune of the Fibonacci series. The current upside target is 564 which is 233 points up from the March 2006 low at 331. If Google is stronger than I expect the next two Fibonacci levesl are 610 ( a Fibonacci number itself) and 705 which is 610 points above the 95 trading low in 2005. I note also that 708 is 377 points above the 331 low.

Baidu

Here is a weekly chart of Baidu.com. I last commented on this stock here.

I have drawn two long term boxes on the chart, each 109.54 points high. I think it likely that BIDU will reach the top of the second box, riding the crest of the wave of speculation in China. It will probably falter temporarily near the 1/2 division point of that box which stands at 208.75.

Support in the meatime is at 165.

Tale of the Tape

LEADERS:


GOOG: Support is at 522. Next upside target is 552.

IBM: The 102 level is support and 112 is the next upside target.

GS: I think GS is about to move above 233 resistance and rally to 250. Support now is at 210.

CME: Support is at 525. I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.

MO: Support is at 68. Upside target is 75.


OF INTEREST:


BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 230.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.

AAPL: Support is at 112. Upside target is 135.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: I now think the trend is up and that ICE is headed for 175. Meantime support is at 134.

NYX: I think NYX will make a low near 68 and then rally to 90 or so. I am abandoning my expectation for a new bull market high anytime this year.

NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. I think the recent high near 148 will hold and that the the 100 level will be seen later this year.

PFE: Support is 25. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: Downside target is 50, resistance above the market is at 61.

SHLD: Support at 165 was broken decisively this morning. I think the bull market in SHLD is over. Resistance above the market is at 168. Next downside target is 145.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Resistance is at 76. Support is at 65.

EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 43 in a few months.

WMT: Headed for strong resistance at 55. Support is at 48.

Guesstimates on July 10, 8:50 am ET

(Note: Yes, this is the same as yesterday’s - but I did correct the silver futures month to September from July ! )

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1530 and in the Spiders is 151.70.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached 48.70. I still think the trend is upward and the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 105-20. I think the market will then rally to 108-20 and higher. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 104-16 and the next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is stalling near its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - September Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. September silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.

Nasdaq Composite

Here is a weekly chart of the Nasdaq composite index. I last commented on this chart here.

As you can see the index has rallied into the target zone I have been watching. Lately this sector has been outperforming the S&P but I think this period of outperformance is about to end. In any event I don't think the index will move out of this target zone on the upside until another reaction at least as big as the March 2007 break develops.

Guesstimates on July 9, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1530 and in the Spiders is 151.70.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached 48.70. I still think the trend is upward and the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed to 105-20. I think the market will then rally to 108-20 and higher. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 104-16 and the next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is stalling near its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I think crude is heading up to 76.20. XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.

Guesstimates on July 6, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1523 and in the Spiders is 151.00.

QQQQ: The Q’s have reached 48.70. I still think the trend is upward and the next target is 50.00. Support stands at 47.50.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds didn’t hold support at 106-20 and now are headed a point lower to 105-20. I still think the market will rally to 108-20 and higher once this reaction is complete. Support in TLT is at 83.00 and the next rally should carry it to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is now at 104-16 and the next upside target for the notes is still 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is stalling near its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude has broken above its important 70.00 resistance level so I think it is now heading up to 76.20. If I am right about this XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 525. Next upside target is 552.

Guesstimates on July 5, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1523 and in the Spiders is 151.00.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are on the way to 48.70.

TLT - September Bonds: Support in the bonds is at 106-20. Next upside target is 108-20. I think the bond market is in the middle of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 105-00 and the next upside target for the notes is 106-16. I think the market will rally at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: The market should stall near its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude has broken above its important 70.00 resistance level so I think it is now heading up to 76.20. If I am right about this XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 512. Next upside target is 552.

Guesstimates on July 3, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the low for the drop from the June 1 top in the S&P’s occurred last Wednesday at 1492. Next upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1510 and in the Spiders is 149.80.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are on the way to 48.70.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should rally to the next upside target at 108-20. I think the bond market is in the middle of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should rally to 106-16. I think the market will rally several weeks and at least 3 or 4 points from its low at 103-21.

Euro-US Dollar: The market should stall near its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude has broken above its important 70.00 resistance level so I think it is now heading up to 76.20. If I am right about this XLE should rally further to 76 and OIH should hit 190. USO should move up to 56.50.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 665 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver should stall at resistance near 1295 and is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 512. Next upside target is 552.

Guesstimates on July 2, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the low for the drop from the June 1 top in the S&P’s occurred last Wednesday at 1492. Next upside targets are 1570 for the S&P’s and 155.50 for the Spiders. Support in the S&P’s is 1503 and in the Spiders is 149.00.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are on the way to 48.70.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should rally to the next upside target at 108-20. I think the bond market has made an important low and is in the early stages of a multi-week rally of at least 5 points. TLT should move to 86.50.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes should rally to 106-16. I think the market has established an important low from which it will rally several weeks and at least 3 or 4 points.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is heading back to its last top at 136.80. I think that the market will eventually drop to 125 or lower before it goes as high as 138.

Dollar-Yen: Next upside target for the yen is 125.50. Support is at 122.30. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: I still think this sector is making an important top. Resistance in XLE is now at 71 and in OIH is at 177. The next significant move in both will be downward. USO should drop to 45 or lower. August crude should bounce off of resistance at 70.00 and then head down to 55.00 and eventually lower than that.

GLD - August Gold: I think GLD has started downward and will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. August gold should hold resistance at 696 and drop below 600.

SLV - July Silver: SLV is on its way below 120. July silver is headed below the 1200 level.

Google: I think Google is headed for 564. Support now is at 512. Next upside target is 552.