E-mini Update

The e-minis look like they will close near 1281.50 today.  This is a bearish performance and makes me think the market is headed down to 1250.  Even so, I expect a big rally to start from 1250.  It should carry the market first to 1340 and eventually to 1500 and above. 

E-minis

I just sold my 200% long position at 1286 a few minutes ago. The market has dropped below 1286 as I write this on relatively high volume after trading sideways above that level for about an hour. I don't like this action because it makes yesterday look like a false breakout above the previous high at 1294 made on August 22. I'll take another look at things early Tuesday, but I am beginning to suspect that the move to 1250 I had been expecting a few days ago has begun. However, for the moment I have no position and no firm conviction about likely direction for the next few days. 

Guesstimates on August 29, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am 200% long from 1276.50.  I think this up swing will reach 1340. Support today is at 1286. I still think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - December Bonds: The December bonds are trading 28 ticks below September.  I think the market will bounce off of resistance near 118-16 and then head much lower.    

December 10 Year Notes: The December notes are trading 37 ticks below September. I think the market will stall near 116-08 and then head much lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1500 and the next downside target is 1100. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 28, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am now 200% long again from 1276.50.  I think this up swing will reach 1340. I still think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached resistance near 118-28 and should soon turn lower.   

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1500 and the next downside target is 1100. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-minis

I just put back on my 200% long position at 1276.50.  If I am reading the market correctly we should get a close above 1275 today. 

Guesstimates on August 27, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I have no position at the moment, but I expect to get long again near 1250.  This market will probably drop into the 1240-50 zone before it heads up to 1340. Strength above 1275 today would mean that this up move has already started and then I shall get long once more. I still think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached resistance near 118-28 and should soon turn lower.   

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1500 and the next downside target is 1100. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 26, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I have no position at the moment, but I expect to get long again near 1250.  This market will probably drop into the 1240-50 zone before it heads up to 1340. I still think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached resistance near 118-28 and should soon turn lower.   

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1500 and the next downside target is 1100. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-mini and S&P Update

The continuous selling activity we have seen today started from a second lower top relative to the August 11 top at 1313.50. 

I think this means that the E-minis are headed for 1251 and possibly to 1240 before a big upswing can begin. 

E-minis

I just sold my long position in the E-minis at 1278.25 and am now flat.  I don't like the fact that the market is showing weakness below Friday's daytime trading range which itself was a second lower top relative to the August 11 high. I am not bearish, but I do expect to reestablish this position at lower prices. 

Guesstimates on August 25, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am 200% long at an average price of 1270.75.  The 1270 level is support. I think this swing will carry the market up to 1340. I also think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1500 and the next downside target is 1100. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 22, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am 200% long at an average price of 1270.75.  The 1270 level is now support. I think this swing will carry the market up to 1340. I also think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 21, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am 200% long at an average price of 1270.75.  The 1260 level is still support. I think the next swing will carry the market up to 1340. I think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-minis

I just added to my long position at 1271.50, making me 200% long at an average of 1270.75

Guesstimates on August 20, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The market didn’t quite make it to 1260 yesterday and is a little stronger this morning. I just went 100% long again at 1270.00. I think the next swing will be a move up to 1340. I think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds broke past 117-16 resistance and are now headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes broke past 116-08 resistance and are now headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.  

Google: I think GOOG will hold support in the 460-80 zone and begin a move over 750.

Guesstimates on August 19, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1260.  From there a rally to 1340 or so is likely. I think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds broke past 117-16 resistance yesterday and are now headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes broke past 116-08 resistance and are now headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-Mini Update

I just got out of the 1293 long position I bot this morning. Sale was at 1282.75.  It looks like the market is headed for 1260 or so. 

E-minis

I just replaced half of Friday's long position in the E-minis. So now I am 100% long from 1293.  I will bag this trade if I see weakness below 1287.

Guesstimates on August 18, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I sold my entire long position Friday at 1297.25. I still think that the odds favor a move to 1325 this week in the e-minis. If I am wrong about this then I would expect to see a drop to 1260 before this rally resumes. In any case I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached resistance at 117-16 and I think this market will soon resume its drop towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 116-08 resistance and I think this market will soon resume its downtrend to 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-mini Update

I just sold my entire e-mini long position at 1297.25.  I don't like the fact that on the third day of the rally from 1275 the market is dull at a lower top. Since I have a decent profit from an average price of 1251.25 I want to take it. Should the market break from here I plan to put my position back on near 1260. 

Guesstimates on August 15, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week. However, any significant weakness today would cause me to close this trade with the intention of putting it back on near the 1260 level. In any case I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 14, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. Support is now at 1275. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. Resistance stands at 47.50 but I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 890. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 13, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. The market bounced off of 1288 support late yesterday but this morning it looks like it will continue down to 1275 before beginning the next leg up. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is now at 46.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 890. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 12, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. Support today is at 1288. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is now at 46.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 890. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Dollar Bull Market Underway

Here are two charts which tell me that a big change has occurred in the U.S. Dollar.

The first chart is a daily chart of the U.S. Dollar index. I think a new bull market started from the March low at 70.70. If I am right about this I think the index is headed for the 110 level over the  next few years. Shorter term you can see the 3.61 point boxes which I have drawn starting from the March low. I think this initial move off of the March low will make it up to the 79.70 level which is the 1/2 point of the third box up from the low.

The second chart above this post is a point and figure chart of the Euro currency. A big top formed between the 153 and 160 levels and now you can see a decisive downside breakout. A count across the congestion range yields a downside target of 140.  I think the 135 level is more likely because as you can see on this chart there is no sideways action which could act as support near the 140 level.

Guesstimates on August 11, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. Support today is again at 1275. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: I now think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I now think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 121 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 915. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 8, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or two. Support today is again at 1260. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance is at 116-12. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 156.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 125 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 915. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 7, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or two. Support today is again at 1260. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 so I think the market is now headed for 1250.  

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

Guesstimates on August 6, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am now 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or two. Support today is at 1260. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 so I think the market is now headed for 1250.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-minis

I doubled my e-mini position at 1261.75 a few minutes ago. I'll stay with these additional contracts if the market closes above 1256 today. 

Guesstimates on August 5, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still long my original position from 1240.50. I also think the e-minis will soon begin a rally to 1325. Support today is again at 1250. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 so I think the market is now headed for 1250.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

More Evidence on Sentiment

Here are two more reasons for believing that there is an historically high level of bearish sentiment in today's stock market. 

The first chart above this post comes courtesy of the New York Times and appeared in Saturday's business section column "Off the Charts" by Floyd Norris. It shows that for the first time in 20 years more than 50% of the respondents to the Conference Board consumer confidence survey expected stock prices to decline over the next 12 months.

The second chart shows the bullish and bearish percentages reported in the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of investment newsletters.  The latest reading was 50% bears, the highest bearish percentage in 14 years.

I don't believe the market averages will drop very much from here given the extreme levels of bearish sentiment we see. The next big move in the S&P will be upward to 1500 and eventually much higher than that.  

Guesstimates on August 4, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still long my original position from 1240.50. I also think the e-minis will soon begin a rally to 1325. Support today is at 1250. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 Friday so I think the market is now headed for 1250.  

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 

E-mini Update

I just sold at 1261.50 the e-mini's I bought earlier today at 1259. I don't like the fact that the market broke 7 points below what I thought would be support at 1260. I now will sell the rest of my longs on a close today below 1256. 

E-minis

I just doubled my e-mini long position at 1259. I expect the market to close above 1260 today, but if it doesn't I shall sell all of my long position.

Guesstimates on August 1, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I still think the e-minis are now on the way to 1325. Support today remains at 1260. I am long from 1240.50. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance above the market is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 Friday so I think the market is now headed for 1250.  

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750.