Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Guesstimates on April 30, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: My e-mini stop remains at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365. I think this market will soon hit 1410 and will probably continue up to 1430 over the next week.

QQQ: The Q’s reached the 47.50 level last week and I think the market will soon reach the 50-51 zone.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro will move into the 161-162 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next big move will be downward to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: The 119.00 level is strong resistance and I think a drop to 106.00 or so is imminent.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - July Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so.

Google: Google now has support at 510. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Guesstimates on April 29, 7:30 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: My e-mini stop remains at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365. I think this market will soon hit 1410 and will probably continue up to 1430 over the next week.

QQQ: The Q’s reached the 47.50 level last week and I think the market will soon reach the 50-51 zone.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro will move into the 161-162 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next big move will be downward to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: The 119.00 level is strong resistance and I think a drop to 106.00 or so is imminent.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - July Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so.

Google: Google now has support at 510. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Lindsay Update


Above this post you will see a daily chart of the Dow Industrials showing my interpretation of an ongoing George Lindsay Three Peaks and a Domed House formation in the Dow. Above this chart you will also find a weekly chart of the Dow showing my interpretation of the market's position within its sequence of Linday's basic advances and declines. I last commented on Lindsay's approach to the market here.

The Dow traced out a clearly defined three peaks extending from July through December 2007. The subsequent separating decline was quite a bit bigger than normally associated with a three peaks formation. I am placing point 10 at the March low rather than at the January low because this placement allows for a clearly defined point 14 in April. The standard time interval from point 14 to the peak of the domed house at point 25 is 7 months and 10 days which would put the top in late November of 2008.

The top called for by the Domed house projection comes early relative to the top predicted by the sequence of basic advances and declines I have highlighted on the top chart. Since the basic advance which ended in July 2007 was an extended one Linday's theory predicts that the subsequent basic advance will be subnormal in length. The shortest basic advance Lindsay recorded lasted about 14 months and there were several instances of subnormal advances lasting 16-17 months. I am guessing that the current basic advance will last about that long. It would then match the length of the first basic advance from the 2002 low point.

These two projections can be reconciled if the Dow spends about 9 months in an essentially sideways trading area from December 2008 through September 2009. The subsequent basic decline would then be a more extended and substantial drop than we saw from October 2007 through March 2008.

Guesstimates on April 28, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: My e-mini stop is still at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365. I think this market will soon hit 1410 and will probably continue up to 1430 over the next week.

QQQ: The Q’s reached the 47.50 level last week and I think the market will soon reach the 50-51 zone.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the euro is about to step up into the 161-162 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next big move will be downward to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: The 119.00 level is strong resistance and I think a drop to 106.00 or so is imminent.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so.

Google: Google now has support at 510. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Guesstimates on April 25, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: My e-mini stop is still at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365. I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the euro is about to step up into the 161-162 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: The 119.00 level is strong resistance and I think a drop to 106.00 or so is imminent.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so.

Google: Google now has support at 510. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Guesstimates on April 24, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: My e-mini stop is still at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365. I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the euro is about to step up into the 161-162 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: The market has traded to within 5 cents of 119.00 resistance so I think a drop to 106.00 or so is imminent.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. The high at 1875 probably marked the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google now has support at 510. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Guesstimates on April 23, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: My e-mini stop is still at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365. I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – June Crude: June crude traded within 5 cents of 119.00 resistance yesterday so I think the market will probably drop at least $10 dollars from here. Support is at 106.00.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. The high at 1875 probably marked the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google now has support at 510. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Guesstimates on April 22, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so. My e-mini stop is at 1458, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think 119.00 will be the next stop. Support in the mean time is at 106.00

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. The high at 1875 probably marked the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google now has support at 490. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Guesstimates on April 21, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so. My e-mini stop is now at 1358, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support is at 1365.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think 119.00 will be the next stop. Support in the mean time is at 106.00

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. The high at 1875 probably marked the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google now has support at 490. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 590.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Guesstimates on April 18, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so. My e-mini stop is now at 1453, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325. Support now is at 1365.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I now looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude closed well past the 112.50 level so I think 119.00 will be the next stop. Support in the mean time is at 106.00

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. The high at 1875 probably marked the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google now has support at 460. I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 550.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Guesstimates on April 17, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so. My e-mini stop is at 1342, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325 and below yesterdays gap open. Support now is at 1350.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I now looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude close well past the 112.50 level so I think 119.00 will be the next stop.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940 even though the market move above that level yesterday.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. This morning’s high at 1875 will probably mark the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google has support at 440 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Guesstimates on April 16, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: A few minutes ago I went long the e-minis at 1342. I will stay long provided we see no close today below 1335 and in the meantime I am keeping my stop at 1324. I think the market will soon rally to 1410. I expect to see prints in the 1430-40 range within a couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I now looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude has made it up to 114.00 but the market is trading just above very strong, long term resistance in the 112-113 range. I think the next next significant development will be a drop into the $85-90 range.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google has support at 440 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Guesstimates on April 15, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market will bounce from the 1325 level and begin a rally to 1410. I expect to see prints in the 1430-40 range within a couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude will probably make it up to 114.00 but the market is trading around very strong, long term resistance in the 112-113 range so I think the next next significant development will be a drop into the $85-90 range.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google now has support at 440 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Guesstimates on April 14, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis have dropped below 1340 support but I think the market will bounce today from the 1325 level and begin a rally to 1410. I expect to see prints in the 1430-40 range within a couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude is hovering a little below 112.50 and I think that level will prove to be strong resistance. The next significant development should be a drop into the $85-90 range.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google now has support at 440 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Guesstimates on April 11, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I still think that the e-minis will drop to 1340 and then start a move into the 1430-40 range.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude is hovering a little below 112.50 and I think that level will prove to be strong resistance. The next significant development should be a drop into the $85-90 range.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Guesstimates on April 10, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market should drop to 1340 and then start a move into the 1430-40 range.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude got close to the 112.50 level yesterday but I think that level will prove to be strong resistance. The next significant development should be a drop into the $85-90 range.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Guesstimates on April 9, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market continues to bounce off of the 1360 level but can’t move decisively above 1390. I still think that a move into the 1430-40 range is imminent but there is still an even chance we will see 1340 first.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude is trading a little more than $2 below its high at $111. I think that high will hold but even if it doesn’t the 112.50 level is the most I see on the upside before a break of $20-25 materializes.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Guesstimates on April 8, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market nearly hit the short term target at 1390 yesterday and now is trading near the low end of the recent trading range which stands at 1359. The worst I see on the downside here is 1340 and there is an even chance that the 1359 low will hold. In either event the next upside target will be the 1430-40 range.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude is trading a little more than $2 below its high at $111. I think that high will hold but even if it doesn’t the 112.50 level is the most I see on the upside before a break of $20-25 materializes.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

Monday, April 07, 2008

Guesstimates on April 7, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market is getting close to the short term upside target at 1390. The early February top was 1400 and I think we shall see at least one substantial reaction from a temporary high in the 1390-1400 range before the market moves into the 1430-50 range.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun. Downside target is 90.00.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

Friday, April 04, 2008

Guesstimates on April 4, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market is getting close to the short term upside target at 1390. The early February top was 1400 and I think we shall see at least one substantial reaction from that level before the market moves into the 1430-50 range.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun. Downside target is 90.00.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Guesstimates on April 3. 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Short term upside target is 1390 and support now stands at 1335. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun. Downside target is 90.00.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Cash S&P

Here is a bar chart of the cash S&P 500. I've sketched the price boxes defined by the initial rally off of the March 17 low at 1256. These boxes are 104 points high. I think that we are in the midst of a rally that will carry the market at least to the top of the second box near 1464. I should note also that the 1440 level is the 1 7/8 multiple of the 768 low of 2002 while 1248 is the 1 5/8 multiple of the same low.

As you know I am very bullish because I think the panic of the last two months has forced most people to the bear side of the ledger. I see a very substantial base which has developed over the past three months in my point and figure chart of the Spiders. This base counted very conservatively will support a move to 1570. If counted normally it supports a move well above the 1600 level.

Guesstimates on April 2, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Short term upside target is 1390 and support now stands at 1335. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is heading for 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun. Downside target is 90.00.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 940.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1840.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward. Short term upside target is 490.

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Guesstimates on April 1, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Support is still at 1310. I think the next development will be a rally from current levels to 1390 or so. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds will soon begin a drop to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has rallied back near its 159.03 high but unless is closes above that level I shall still expect a reaction that will carry at least to 150.00 or so and probably lower than that.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins. Meantime resistance stands at 101.20.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 960.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1870.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward.