Guesstimates on April 29, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1353-63. The ES is headed for 1400 and above. (Added later - the 1345-55 range estimate which was initially posted was an error - it was yesterday's, not today's range estimate)

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 146.20. Next upside target is 149.30.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: Next step up will carry crude to 118. Support is at 106.

GLD – June Gold: Support is at 1485 and the next upside target is 1560.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance is at 49.50. Support at 44.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 28, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1345-55. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 146.20. Next upside target is 149.30.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: Next step up will carry crude to 118. Support is at 106.

GLD – June Gold: Support is at 1485 and the next upside target is 1560.

SLV - May Silver: Next resistance is at 49.50.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 27, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1341-53. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 143.80. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: Next step up will carry crude to 118. Support is at 106.

GLD – June Gold: Support is at 1435 and the next upside target is 1560.

SLV - May Silver: Next resistance is at 49.50.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

headed higher

Here is an hourly bar chart showing e-mini trading going back to the March low at 1241.25. If the move up from the April 18 low matches the size of the first leg up it will carry the market up 95 points from 1290.25 to 1385 (blue dash rectangles). The top of the trend channel (green dash lines) I have drawn will be in that neighborhood about 10 days from now.

I think this bull market has much further to run. I am looking for Dow 14,000 and S%P 1500 by mid-summer.

Guesstimates on April 26, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1332-42. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: Next step up will carry crude to 118. Support is at 106.

GLD – June Gold: Support is at 1435 and the next upside target is1560.

SLV - May Silver: Next resistance is at 49.50.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Gloom

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Guesstimates on April 25, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1325-35. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: Next step up will carry crude to 118. Support is at 106.

GLD – June Gold: Support is at 1435 and the next upside target is1560.

SLV - May Silver: Next resistance is at 49.50.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 21, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1329-1337. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: Next step up will carry crude to 118. Support is at 106.

GLD – June Gold: Support is at 1435 and the next upside target is1560.

SLV - May Silver: Next resistance is at 49.50.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 20, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: I now think that the drop from 1336 ended yesterday at 1290.25. Today's range estimate is 1320-1333. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached 145.00 but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: The 1495 target has been reached but I see no sign of a trend reversal. Support is at 1435 and the next upside target is1560.

SLV - May Silver: The 44.00 target has been reached but there is no sign of a top. Next resistance is at 49.50.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

oportunity for the aggressive contrarian

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domed house update

Here is an updated schematic for Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house pattern. I think we are in the domed house portion of the pattern. The domed house began from the July 2010 low.

I think the seven month, 10 day period timed point 19 and that point 20 occurred at yesterday's low. The market is now headed up to the dome of the domed house. This generally takes the form of a distorted head and shoulders pattern.

I estimate that the Dow will reach 14000 at point 23 and that the S&P will hit 1500. My best estimate for the timing of point is June 30.

Guesstimates on April 19, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: I now think that the drop from 1336 ended yesterday at 1290.25. Today's range estimate is 1300-1313. The ES is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached 145.00 but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: The 1495 target has been reached but I see no sign of a trend reversal. Support is at 1410 and the next upside target is1560.

SLV - May Silver: Continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

ES headed for 1284 - revised range estimate is 1284-1301

revised range estimate is 1298-1310

Guesstimates on April 18, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: I now think that the drop from 1336 ended at the April 14 low of 1298.25. Only weakness today below 1308 would change my mind about this. Today's range estimate is 1309-1321.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached 145.00 but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

June Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 support level was broken decisively Friday. GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 15, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1306-1316. I think this correction will end in the vicinity of 1285.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached 145.00 but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

May Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 14, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1298-1310. I think this correction will end in the vicinity of 1285.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached 145.00 but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: I think the rally in the dollar-yen is over. The market is now headed down to 70.00.

May Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

down to 1284 - then up

Here is an hourly bar chart showing e-mini trading going back to the March low at 1241. I think a reaction is underway which is likely to carry the ES to 1284-88 or so (green oval). The midpoint of the rally from the March low is 1288 (dash green line). The high of the reaction just prior to the March low is 1284 (solid green line). A drop from today's high at 1318.75 that matches the size of the initial leg down would end at 1288 (blue dash rectangles). Finally, a couple of trading days from now the low of the trend channel I have drawn would also be near 1288.

Once this drop is complete I expect to see the e-minis resume their rally to 1400 and above.

Guesstimates on April 13, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1307-20. I think this correction will end in the vicinity of 1285.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached 145.00 but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 149.00.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has been stronger than I expected. Next resistance is 86.50. I still think that a drop to 70.00 lies dead ahead.

May Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 12, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1303-18. I think this correction will end in the vicinity of 1300. If it doesn't then 1270 will be the next stop.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro nearly reached 145.00 Friday but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 147.00.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has been stronger than I expected. Next resistance is 86.50. I still think that a drop to 70.00 lies dead ahead.

May Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 11, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1324-34. Friday's low should support a swing up to 1356. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro nearly reached 145.00 Friday but I see no sign yet of a top. Support is now at 142.50. Next upside target is 147.00.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has been stronger than I expected. Next resistance is 86.50. I still think that a drop to 70.00 lies dead ahead.

May Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: The 39.50 resistance level has been reached. The market is likely to stall here, but my best guess is that continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 8, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1330-40. Yesterday's low should support a swing up to 1356. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has been stronger than I expected. Next resistance is 86.50. I still think that a drop to 70.00 lies dead ahead.

May Crude: The 112 target has been reached. I expect a lot of hesitation here if not a significant reversal. In the meantime support is at 104.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: The 39.50 resistance level has been reached. The market is likely to stall here, but my best guess is that continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 560 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 7, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1326-36. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has been stronger than I expected. Next resistance is 86.50. I still think that a drop to 70.00 lies dead ahead.

May Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: The 39.50 resistance level has been reached. The market is likely to stall here, but my best guess is that continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

trend is up

Here is an hourly bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading since the March low at 1241.

The first leg up from that low carried the ES up 55 points. From the subsequent reaction low at 1279 a second 55 point rally carried the market to 1334 and to 1336.50 early this morning (second blue rectangle). There have been drops of 17 and 15 points on the way up from 1241. Another reaction of this size would end near 1320 (red rectangles). I expect that reaction low within a day or two. From there another 55 point rally would take the ES to 1375.

Guesstimates on April 6, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1329-39. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has been stronger than I expected. Next resistance is 86.50. I still think that a drop to 70.00 lies dead ahead.

May Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: The 39.50 resistance level has been reached. The market is likely to stall here, but my best guess is that continuation up to 44.00 is likely.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 5, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1319-28. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: This is a strong resistance zone in the yen. I think the drop to 70.00 will soon resume.

May Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Next stop is 39.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 4, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1327-37. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: This is a strong resistance zone in the yen. I think the drop to 70.00 will soon resume.

May Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Silver has reached the 36.00 upside target but there is still no sign of a top. Next stop is 39.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on April 1, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1320-33. The market is headed for 1400 and above.

QQQ: I expect to see new bull market highs soon.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: The 83.50 target for the yen has been reached. So far the high today is 84.38. This is a strong resistance zone in the yen. I think the drop to 70.00 will soon resume.

May Crude: Crude will continue upward to 112. Support is at 97.

GLD – June Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target.

SLV - May Silver: Silver has reached the 36.00 upside target but there is still no sign of a top. Next stop is 39.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.