Guesstimates on October 31, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s big drop was largely retraced overnight but the ES has halted below 2131 resistance so far. If this level holds today the market is likely to drop below Friday’s low at 2112.50. A drop below the September 12 low at 2100.25 would be very bearish if the ES spends more than a day below that level.

QQQ:  The 120 level is resistance and a drop below 117 will probably continue to 110.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think a substantial advance in yields is underway which should push the 10 year yield up to 2.50% or so.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway. Resistance is 104-106. Next downside target is 95.

December Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.

December Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. Support is now at 1240. A drop visibly below 1240 would be long term bearish. Failing that the next upside target is 1420.

December Silver: Next upside target is 25.00. Support at 18.00 has failed but there is a secondary level at 17.00. If this fails too the longer term picture will become bearish.

Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.

Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.

Facebook: Support is at 120. Next upside target is 145.

Twitter: Breakout support at 20 has failed and this means that TWTR is headed for 10.00.

Alibaba: Support is now at 98. Next upside target is 125.

Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Guesstimates on October 28, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: Overnight the ES bounced off of support at the October17 low of 2116.75 and is now headed up into the 2140-50 zone. The market will probably not emerge from its 3 month trading range until after November 8. Even then I think there it too much bullish sentiment right now to support a swing above 2200.

QQQ:  The 120 level is resistance and a drop below 117 will probably continue to 110.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think a substantial advance in yields is underway which should push the 10 year yield up to 2.50% or so.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway. Resistance is 104-106. Next downside target is 95.

December Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.

December Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. Support is now at 1240. A drop visibly below 1240 would be long term bearish. Failing that the next upside target is 1420.

December Silver: Next upside target is 25.00. Support at 18.00 has failed but there is a secondary level at 17.00. If this fails too the longer term picture will become bearish.

Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.

Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.

Facebook: Support is at 120. Next upside target is 145.

Twitter: Breakout support at 20 has failed and this means that TWTR is headed for 10.00.

Alibaba: Support is now at 98. Next upside target is 125.

Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Guesstimates on October 27, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES bounced off of support near 2123 yesterday and now appears to be headed for 2150 and then up into the 2163-73 range which contains three tops made during the past month.  But the market will probably not emerge from its 3 month trading range until after November 8. In any event I think there it too much bullish sentiment right now to support at swing above 2200.

QQQ:  The 120 level is resistance and a drop below 117 will probably continue to 110.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think a substantial advance in yields is underway which should push the 10 year yield up to 2.50% or so.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway. Resistance is 104-106. Next downside target is 95.

December Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.

December Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. Support is now at 1240. A drop visibly below 1240 would be long term bearish. Failing that the next upside target is 1420.

December Silver: Next upside target is 25.00. Support at 18.00 has failed but there is a secondary level at 17.00. If this fails too the longer term picture will become bearish.

Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.

Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.

Facebook: Support is at 120. Next upside target is 145.

Twitter: Breakout support at 20 has failed and this means that TWTR is headed for 10.00.

Alibaba: Support is now at 98. Next upside target is 125.

Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.