Guesstimates on June 30, 2017

September S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the ES dropped about 10 points below its trading range low but has since recovered half of its decline from 2451.50. I suspect that a drop below 2400 lies ahead but will put aside this suspicion and turn bullish if the ES can move visibly above 2431. If the ES does drop below 2400 on relatively high volume I will conclude that a move down to 2290 is underway. Even in that event I still will expect the ES to trade above 2500 later this year.

QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped visibly below its 200 day moving average yesterday. The market is concerned about the deflationary effects of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Should the 10 year yield stay below this moving average I think the US stock market will be vulnerable to a drop of 10-15% because of these balance sheet concerns.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par. The 113-117 zone is long term resistance.

Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136

West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 45 has apparently failed. Resistance is at 48. Downside target is 36-38.

August Gold:  Next resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.

July Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.

Google: Upside target at 1010 is nearby but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.

Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.

Facebook: Support at 140. Next upside target is 160.

Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.

Alibaba: I think BABA will have a hard time moving past 145-48 without a 15-20 point drop first. Support is 125

Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.

Guesstimates on June 29, 2017

September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has moved all the way back to the high end of its 2412-2451 trading range. The overnight stall which has been followed by a swing back below 2439 means that the market is now probably headed back to the lows of the trading range. Even so, I think an upside breakout above the 2451 level will develop before a downside breakout below 2412. I still expect the ES to trade above 2500 later this year.

QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped visibly below its 200 day moving average yesterday. The market is concerned about the deflationary effects of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Should the 10 year yield stay below this moving average I think the US stock market will be vulnerable to a drop of 10-15% because of these balance sheet concerns.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par. The 113-117 zone is long term resistance.

Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136

West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 45 has apparently failed. Downside target is now 36-38.

August Gold:  Next resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.

July Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.

Google: Upside target at 1010 is nearby but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.

Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.

Facebook: Support at 140. Next upside target is 160.

Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.

Alibaba: I think BABA will have a hard time moving past 145-48 without a 15-20 point drop first. Support is 125

Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.

Guesstimates on June 28, 2017

September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES reached the 2412-16 support zone and has rallied. Resistance is at 2432. If this resistance holds then the drop will continued down into the 2371-99 range. I still think the ES will trade above 2500 later this year.

QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped visibly below its 200 day moving average yesterday. The market is concerned about the deflationary effects of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Should the 10 year yield stay below this moving average I think the US stock market will be vulnerable to a drop of 10-15% because of these balance sheet concerns.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par. The 113-117 zone is long term resistance.

Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136

West Texas Crude Oil: Support at 45 has apparently failed. Downside target is now 36-38.

August Gold:  Next resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.

July Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.

Google: Upside target at 1010 is nearby but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.

Apple:  AAPL is on its way to 162. Support is at 144.

Facebook: Support at 140. Next upside target is 160.

Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.

Alibaba: I think BABA will have a hard time moving past 145-48 without a 15-20 point drop first. Support is 125

Visa: Next upside target is 105. Support is at 90.