Guesstimates on May 3, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1597-1612. The market has moved through its long term resistance zone of 1546-87. If it should spend several days trading above 1587 I will have to abandon my 10% break scenario.

QQQ:  Headed for 73.   

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. However the market is likely to stall for a few weeks beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96.

June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

June Gold:  The market has rallied a bit above 1440 resistance but should halt at 1465. Strength above 1465 would mean that gold is headed back to the breakout point at 1530. Downside target is still 1200-50.

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  

Google: GOOG held well above support at 747, its 2007 top, during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.

gold

Here is a pair of charts which shows gold's position within its bull market which started back in 1999 at the 252 level.

The lower chart is a monthly chart using a logarithmic scale. It shows that the long term up trend in gold is still intact. A drop from the top at 1923 made in 2011 which matches in percentage terms the drop in 2008 would take gold down to 1250 or so (purple line). So I think the intersection of that purple line with the uptrend line will prove to be very strong long term support in gold.

The upper chart is a daily chart covering price action during the past two years. As you can see gold has broken down out of the 18 month trading range of 1520-1800 and did so on very heavy volume during an accelerating drop. The breakout level (red line) is now very strong resistance. Notice that the 50 day moving average will soon be at or below the breakout point (green oval) and this emphasizes the importance of 1520-30 as overhead resistance. I doubt that the market will rally all the way back there before it heads down to support near 1250.

If you are a fan of Fibonacci here are some other reasons for expecting a low near 1250. First of all, the .382 retracement of the advance from 252 to 1923 is at 1285. Multiplying the 252 low by 5 gives support at 1260. Adding 987 to 252 gives support at 1239. Adding 377 to the 850 top made in January of 1980 gives 1227.

When might the 1250 low materialize? Well, June 2013 is 21 months and 89 weeks from the September 2011 top at 1923. And it is 8 months and 34 weeks from the last top in October 2012.

Guesstimates on May 2, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1582-95. The market is holding above its April 16 rally high at 1570.75 which now should be support. This implies that it is headed up to 1605 or so. But I still think that a drop of 10% or more is imminent.

QQQ:  Headed for 73.   

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. However the market is likely to stall for a few weeks beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96.

June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

June Gold:  The market has rallied a bit above 1440 resistance but should halt at 1465. Strength above 1465 would mean that gold is headed back to the breakout point at 1530. Downside target is still 1200-50.

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  

Google: The market averages are headed higher and GOOG held well above

support at 747, its 2007 top during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.

Guesstimates on May 1, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1590-1602. The market is holding above its April 16 rally high at 1570.75 which now should be support. This implies that it is headed up to 1605 or so. But I still think that a drop of 10% or more is imminent.

QQQ:  Headed for 73.   

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. However the market is likely to stall for a few weeks beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96.

June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

June Gold:  The market has rallied a bit above 1440 resistance but should halt at 1465. Strength above 1465 would mean that gold is headed back to the breakout point at 1530. Downside target is still 1200-50.

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  

Google: The market averages are headed higher and GOOG held well above

support at 747, its 2007 top during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.