Guesstimates on Jnaury 28, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1774-1792.  The ES now is on its way to 1720.

QQQ:  Downside target is 82.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.

February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.

March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Upside target at 1150 has been reached. Some sort of stall is likely here and support now is at 1060.

Apple:  AAPL is headed for 600-610. So far AAPL has not participated in the January drop in the market averages and this is a bullish sign.

Guesstimates on January 27, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1778-1794.  The ES now appears to be on its way to 1720.

QQQ:  Downside target is 82.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.

February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.

March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Upside target at 1150 has been reached. Some sort of stall is likely here and support now is at 1060.

Apple:  AAPL is headed for 600-610.

trend turning down

Blogger is having problems so I can't show you any charts.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are trading beneath their 50 day moving averages today as I write this. Coupled with the high volume on the downside both yesterday and today this is solid evidence for a reversal of the short term market trend from up to down.

I think the S&P will drop 130 points from its December 31 top and possibly much more than that. A drop as big as 130 points would match the size of the May-June 2013 drop.

I now think the Dow has put in the top of the domed house, the second half of Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation. If I am right about this the prognosis calls for a drop below the October 9 low in the Dow. The same low in the S&P was roughly at 1645.

Is this the start of a bear market? I think it is too early to tell. The 200 day moving average in the Dow is at 15,440 while the 200 day moving average in the S&P is at 1701. So a drop all the way to the October 2013 lows in these averages would bring them well below their 200 day moving averages which would be the first clue that a bear market has begun.

Guesstimates on January 24, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1804-1818.  A close today below 1809.50 would mean that a drop of 80-130 points from 1846 is underway.  

QQQ:  Upside target is still 90.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: Unless and until 1.37 is breached on a closing basis I will stick with the 1.33 downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

February Crude:  I think crude is headed back to 86 and possibly lower than that.

February Gold:  The market is headed to 1030.

March Silver: The market is headed for 13.00.

Google:  Upside target at 1150 has been reached. Some sort of stall is likely here and support now is at 1060.

Apple:  AAPL is headed for 600-610.