Spiders - September S&P Futures: After yesterday’s close the S&P’s moved back above 1470 resistance and stayed above there all night. I think this means that the market is now headed for the 1500-1510 zone (Spiders headed for 150-151). Once that zone is reached I think we shall see a move down into the 1400-25 range which will be followed by a big rally to new bull market highs.
QQQQ: The Q’s have been acting even stronger than the S&P and should hit 50 before a drop down to 47.50 develops. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds still show no sign of weakness so I think this market will make it up to 113-00 before an extended drop starts. Meantime support beneath the market stands at 111-00. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 109-28 resistance but still show no sign of weakness. I think that the market has a good shot at reaching the 110-16 level before the extended drop I have been expecting begins.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market still stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1245. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Guesstimates on August 30, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I still think the S&P’s are headed down to the 1400 level (140.00 in the Spiders) and there will establish a low and begin a rally to new bull market highs. Any strength above 1468 will change my mind and mean that the market is headed for the 1500-10 zone.
QQQQ: Downside target is 45.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached the 111-28 level but will probably continue a bit higher to 112-08 or so before a drop to 103 can start. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have nearly reached 109-28 resistance and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Downside target is 45.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached the 111-28 level but will probably continue a bit higher to 112-08 or so before a drop to 103 can start. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have nearly reached 109-28 resistance and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Guesstimates on August 29, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s are headed down to the 1400 level (140.00 in the Spiders) and there will establish a low and begin a rally to new bull market highs. Resistance above the market today is at 1460.
QQQQ: Downside target is 45.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached the 111-28 level but will probably continue a bit higher to 112-08 or so before a drop to 103 can start. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have nearly reached 109-28 resistance and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Downside target is 45.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have reached the 111-28 level but will probably continue a bit higher to 112-08 or so before a drop to 103 can start. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have nearly reached 109-28 resistance and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. Both the S&P's and Spiders have broken below the support levels at 1450 and 145 respectively late this afternoon. I think this means that the market is on its way lower, to 1400 in the S&P's and 140 in the Spiders. I also believe that this drop will end at a low above the August 16 lows you see on these charts. Once the next rally begins I expect that it will carry these markets to new bull market highs.
Guesstimates on August 28, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s will rally into the 1500-10 zone before a significant swing downward develops. Meantime support is at 1450. I also think the market will drop into the 1400-25 zone before it moves to new bull market highs. Resistance in the Spiders is 150-151 and support is 145.
QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should rally to 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds should rally to 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Guesstimates on August 27, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s will rally into the 1500-10 zone before a significant swing downward develops. Meantime support is at 1450. I also think the market will drop into the 1400-25 zone before it moves to new bull market highs. Resistance in the Spiders is 150-151 and support is 145.
QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I now think the bonds have a shot at 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I now think the bonds have a shot at 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1230. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Market Shock !!!
Here is the cover of the latest issue of Fortune magazine. I discussed the latest cover of The Economist here.There are four important things to note about this cover and the associated story.
First, the cover's colors are the colors of fear, red on black.
Second, Fortune devoted about 40% of the entire issue to the panic story and related items. This is very unusual and reflects what a big impression the events of August in the markets have made upon the public and upon Wall Street.
Third, Fortune's take on these events is essentially : "They had it coming for assuming too much risk and now all of us are suffering".
Finally every subsection of the Fortune story is headed by an interesting graphic: a down arrow on a circular yellow background. Talk about subliminal predictions !!!!
All in all, I think this magazine cover is very persuasive. It convinces me that stock prices will on average be much higher in three months time than they are today.
Guesstimates on August 24, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s will rally into the 1500-10 zone before a significant swing downward develops. Meantime support is at 1450. I do think the market will drop into the 1400-25 zone before it moves to new bull market highs. Resistance in the Spiders is 150-151 and support is 145.
QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I now think the bonds have a shot at 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I now think the bonds have a shot at 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. I have drawn short term support levels at 1450 in the futures and 145 in the Spiders. As long as these levels hold I shall expect the futures to move up into the 1500-10 range and the Spiders to 150-151. The Q's should reach 49.00 during the same time frame.
After this rally from the August 16 lows is complete I think we shall see a break of 75 points or so in the futures and 7.50 points in the Spiders. The drop will probably be pretty scary and be accompanied by more fear mongering in the media. But I expect this upcoming reaction to stop above the August 16 lows.
The subsequent rally will then carry these markets to new bull market highs.
Guesstimates on August 23, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The market traded above short term resistance at 1460 all day yesterday. I now think the S&P’s will rally into the 1500-10 zone before a significant swing downward develops. I do think the market will drop into the 1400-25 zone before it moves to new bull market highs. Resistance in the Spiders is 150-151 and support is 140-142.50.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 49.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 49.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Guesstimates on August 22, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: Short term resistance still stands at 1460 and I think a drop to 1400 or so will develop before a move to new bull market highs begins. Spider resistance is 146.00 and support is 140.00.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 47.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I looks like the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should encounter resistance at 115.20 then drop to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 47.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: I looks like the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should encounter resistance at 115.20 then drop to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Guesstimates on August 21, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: Short term resistance still stands at 1460 and I think a drop to 1400 or so will develop before a move to new bull market highs begins. Spider resistance is 146.00 and support is 140.00.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 47.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so. Resistance stands at 109-08.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should encounter resistance at 115.20 then drop to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 47.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so. Resistance stands at 109-08.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should encounter resistance at 115.20 then drop to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Wipe Out !!!
Here is the cover of the most recent issue of The Economist magazine. Here is a link to the story (but a subscription may be required).The cover story is entitled "Surviving the Markets" and the cover depicts a surfer about to be wiped out by a huge wave and, if he is really unlucky, eaten by sharks. The story itself opines that the panic has further to go before normalcy can return.
This is the first clearly bearish magazine cover since the July 16 top. I think it has the same significance as this Economist cover which appeared in May of 2006, two weeks before the June low of that year.
The bull market in stocks is not over and I think we shall see new bull market highs by the end of this year.
Guesstimates on August 20, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: Short term resistance still stands at 1460 and I think a drop to 1400 or so will develop before a move to new bull market highs begins. Spider resistance is 146.00 and support is 140.00.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 47.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so. Resistance stands at 109-08.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should encounter resistance at 115.20 then drop to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Short term resistance in the Q’s stands at 47.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is still resistance and the next short term support is at 108-08. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so. Resistance stands at 109-08.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should encounter resistance at 115.20 then drop to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Advancing Issues
The first chart you see above this post is a daily chart showing the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price (black line) and the 10 day moving average of this number (wiggly red line). The second chart above this post is a longer term chart which shows the daily count of the number of issues in the S&P 500 index that are trading above their 200 day moving averages. This second chart goes back to the start of 2003.
You can see that the number of SPX issues trading above their 200 day moving averages has dropped to the lowest level seen in the bull market thus far. Since the S&P 500 itself is above each of its corresponding reaction lows I interpret this as telling us that another buying opportunity in a bull market is at hand.
The chart of the advancing issues number provides convincing evidence that yesterday's panic low probably ended the drop from the July 16 high. Notice that while all the major averages made new reaction lows yesterday, the daily count of the number of advancing issues did not nor did the 10 day moving average make a new low. I think this is a strong bullish divergence. The implication is that a move to new bull market highs has started.
Guesstimates on August 17, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The Fed cut the discount rate about 30 minutes ago and this sent the futures up about 25 points above yesterday’s close. The market has already put in its biggest rally since July 16 and this makes it likely that yesterday’s low will hold. In any case there is resistance above the market today at 1460. Support is at 1400. Divide these numbers by 10 to get the corresponding levels in the Spiders. I still think that new bull market highs will be seen later this year.
QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s stands at 48.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support near 111.50, rally to 113.50 or so and then drop a little lower to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s stands at 48.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support near 111.50, rally to 113.50 or so and then drop a little lower to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Darkest Before the Dawn
Here is an hourly chart of the September S&P e-mini futures. I think we just made the low for the day at 1380, a level which makes the day's range about 35 points, a typical day's range if we aren't going to see a panic today. I think the futures are about to rally 50-75 points.Housing and Financials
Here are daily charts of several financial, homebuilding, and real estate indices. As you can see the market has been in free fall since February of 2007. I think it is about to reverse course at least for a few months. I see support in XHB (the S&P Homebuilder index spiders) at 22.50, support in HGX (the Philadelphia options exchange housing index) at 155, support in IYR (the Dow Jones realestate index) at 65, and suppport in XLF (the financial sector spiders) at 31.The subsequent rally will probably retrace about 1/3 of the drop from the February highs at a minimum.
Tale of the Tape
The last tale can be found here.
LEADERS:
GOOG: Support is at 485. Next upside target is 600.
IBM: The 105-108 zone is good support and a rally from there to 125 is likely.
GS: I think GS should hold support near 160 and rally to 250.
CME: Support is at 495. I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.
MO: Support is at 65. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 230.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Upside target is 155. Support is 100.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Next upside target is 185. Meantime support is at 124.
NYX: Support stands at 63. From there I expect a rally to 90.
NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. I think the recent high near 148 will hold and that the 100 level will be seen later this year.
PFE: Support is 22.50. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Downside target is 50, resistance above the market is at 61.
SHLD: Has reached support at 132. The next move should be upward to 165.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Upside target is now 105. Support is at 65.
EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 43 in a few months.
WMT: Headed for 55. Support is at 42.50
LEADERS:
GOOG: Support is at 485. Next upside target is 600.
IBM: The 105-108 zone is good support and a rally from there to 125 is likely.
GS: I think GS should hold support near 160 and rally to 250.
CME: Support is at 495. I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.
MO: Support is at 65. Upside target is 75.
OF INTEREST:
BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 230.
CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 33.
AAPL: Upside target is 155. Support is 100.
MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.
ICE: Next upside target is 185. Meantime support is at 124.
NYX: Support stands at 63. From there I expect a rally to 90.
NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. I think the recent high near 148 will hold and that the 100 level will be seen later this year.
PFE: Support is 22.50. Upside target is 30.
AMGN: Downside target is 50, resistance above the market is at 61.
SHLD: Has reached support at 132. The next move should be upward to 165.
KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.
AMZN: Upside target is now 105. Support is at 65.
EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 43 in a few months.
WMT: Headed for 55. Support is at 42.50
US Dollar Index
Here is a daily chart of the US Dollar index. I last commented on this market here.I think the past two days' upmove is the harbringer of a new bull market in the dollar. I see the 82.50 level as the short term target on the upside. Once the index moves above thate level I will be convinced that a move up to 97 is underway.
Guesstimates on August 16, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: This market has dropped much more than I expected. However, early this morning it reached the long term trend line I illustrated in yesterday’s post. I think we shall see a strong rally develop from 1390 in the futures and 139.00 in the Spiders. Initial upside target will be 1460 and 146.00. I still think that new bull market highs will be seen later this year.
QQQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 45.50 and then head back to 48.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 108-20 and will soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that. Short term support stands near 133.00..
Dollar-Yen: The yen has developed much more weakness than I expected. At this juncture the downside target is 111.50 which would make this break about as big as the one which ended in May 2006 at the 108.96 level. I do not think the longer term upmove in the yen is over and I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Silver is again trading below 1250 early this morning. A close below there will convince me that a big drop to below 1000 has started. SLV will drop below 100 at the same time.
Google: I think the market will drop to 485 and then start a rally to 600.
QQQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 45.50 and then head back to 48.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 108-20 and will soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that. Short term support stands near 133.00..
Dollar-Yen: The yen has developed much more weakness than I expected. At this juncture the downside target is 111.50 which would make this break about as big as the one which ended in May 2006 at the 108.96 level. I do not think the longer term upmove in the yen is over and I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Silver is again trading below 1250 early this morning. A close below there will convince me that a big drop to below 1000 has started. SLV will drop below 100 at the same time.
Google: I think the market will drop to 485 and then start a rally to 600.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Longer Term Look at Cash S&P
In times of turmoil a look at a longer term chart can calm the nerves.Here is a point and figure chart of the cash S&P 500 index from the beginning of 2002 to the present. The vertical size of each box is 10 S&P points and it takes a 3 box move to show a reversal on this chart.
The first thing to note is the red trendline. On my point and figure charts I like to draw trendline which advance or decline at 1 box every 1, 2, or 4 columns. The advantage of this method is that the trendline can be drawn as soon as a high or low has been identified. In other words, it only takes a single high or low to define a trendline. This contrasts with the standard approach which requires a pair of successive highs or lows to define a trendline.
In any case you can see that the red trendline which advances 1 box per column was tested 5 times during the 2003-2006 period which makes it likely that it is a very significant support line. This trendline currently stands at 1390 in the cash S&P. This is important for two reasons. First, this level is not far from today's low (so far) at 1419, thus suggesting that the drop from the July top is much closer to its end than to its beginning. Secondly, the 1390 level is above the last significant low on the chart, the March 2007 low around 1360. This suggests that the sequence of higher lows which has defined this bull market will remain intact.
The worst downside target from the July top which can be calculated on this chart is obtained by multiplying the width of the top (horizontal red line) by 3 (because this is a 3 box reversal chart) and then subtracting from the high. The resulting downside target is 1360 and this too suggests that the sequence of higher lows will remain intact, especially because the market usually stops well shy of a downside count target in a bull market.
What is the upside potential? Well the count across the base for the bull market which developed during the July 2002 - March 2003 period projects an ultimate top around 1640 in the cash S&P. Counting across the much smaller base which has devloped over the past couple of weeks gives an upside target of 1610. I think we shall see the cash S&P trade above 1600 by the end of this year.
Guesstimates on August 15. 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: Contrary to my expectation the S&P’s and Spiders made new reaction lows late yesterday. I don’t think this downside breakout is the start of a significant drop. Instead I expect the S&P’s to hold support near 1420 and the Spiders to hold near 141.70. From there I expect both markets to rally back to the top of the current trading range which is the 1510 level in the S&P’s. That will be only the first phase of a move to new bull market highs.
QQQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 46.20 and then head back to the high of their trading range at 49.00. Later this year the Q’s will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro closed well below 136.00 in New York yesterday. I think this means that the market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that. Short term support stands near 133.00..
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke well below 117.50 this morning. I think there is an excellent chance that 116.00 will hold and that the next big move will carry the market up to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Silver broke below 1250 early this morning. A close below there will convince me that a big drop to below 1000 has started. SLV will drop below 100 at the same time.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 46.20 and then head back to the high of their trading range at 49.00. Later this year the Q’s will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro closed well below 136.00 in New York yesterday. I think this means that the market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that. Short term support stands near 133.00..
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke well below 117.50 this morning. I think there is an excellent chance that 116.00 will hold and that the next big move will carry the market up to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Silver broke below 1250 early this morning. A close below there will convince me that a big drop to below 1000 has started. SLV will drop below 100 at the same time.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Guesstimates on August 14, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed back to the top of last week’s range at 1510. Support today is at 1446 in the S&P’s and 144.20 in the Spiders. I think it is likely that the low of the correction has been seen and that the market is now headed for new bull market highs.
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed back to the high of their trading range at 49.00 and later this year will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 138.50. A close in New York today below 136.00 will mean that the market is headed much lower.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low has formed and that the market is on its way to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed back to the high of their trading range at 49.00 and later this year will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 138.50. A close in New York today below 136.00 will mean that the market is headed much lower.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low has formed and that the market is on its way to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Guesstimates on August 13, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed back to the top of last week’s range at 1510. I think it is likely that the low of the correction has been seen and that the market is now headed for new bull market highs.
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed back to the high of their trading range at 49.00 and later this year will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: The Q’s are headed back to the high of their trading range at 49.00 and later this year will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Is the Sky Falling ? Part 2
Here are four more images which support my thesis that there is fast growing bearish sentiment even as the averages have remained unchanged over the past 10 days.
The first image above this post is today's front page of the New York Times. It tells us that yesterday central banks around the world intervened in the money markets to prevent panic from spreading. The second image is today's front page of the Chicago Tribune telling us that jittery markets are looking to the Fed for help. The third image is from yesterday's Business Week Online edition and needs no explanation. The associated article "Keeping the Bears at Bay" can be found here. The top image is today's cover of Barron's. The headline : "Market Turmoil". Notice the classic colors of fear, black on red.
My conclusion? Same as yesterday's. This market is going up.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Is the Sky Falling ?
Here is an image of today's front page of The New York Times. The headline says "Mortgage Losses Echo in Europe and On Wall St. ". It is accompanied by an intraday chart of the Dow Jones Industrial average showing the price fluctuation for the preceeding 10 days.I think the market has been hit with a lot of bad news and scare mongering over these last 10 days. Today's headline offers only the latest reason to panic. What I think is interesting about all this can be seen in the Times chart of the Dow. Notice that it has barely moved lower during these 10 days despite all the bad news that the market has had to absorb. I think this is a very bullish sign. It means that any respite from the news will set off a very strong rally. I also think this rally is about to begin and it will carry the averages to new bull market highs.
Bullish Divergence
Here is a daily chart showing the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price (black line) and the 10 day moving average of this number. Above the advancing issues chart you will see a daily bar chart of the Dow Jones Industrial average. I last commented on the advancing issues indicator here. On the advancing issues chart you can see a sequence of higher lows in the daily number and well as a steady advance in the 10 day moving average. Yet today the Dow has made a new low for the reaction from the July 16 high ( although the S&P 500 index has so far held above its corresponding low). This I believe is a very significant positive divergence in the averages, especially since the news about credit conditions is so gloomy.
I don't know whether the Dow has made its reaction low today or whether instead it will drop a little lower Monday. In either case I think the next move of any significance from current levels will be upward to new highs for the bull market.
Guesstimates on August 10, 8:35 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s have dropped back to the the low of the trading range which is 1432.25. I think they will go a little lower to 1425 and then rally back to the top of the range near 1500.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.90. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.90. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Guesstimates on August 9, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think that a move to new bull market highs has begun. Today there is resistance above the market at 1505 in the S&P’s and 150.00 in the Spiders. Support is at 1475 and 147.00 respectively.
QQQQ: Support is at 48.10. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-16 level is resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 48.10. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-16 level is resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Advancing Issues
The first chart above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price (black line) and the 10 day moving average of this number (red line). I last commented on this indicator here. The second chart above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues in the S&P 500 index that are trading above their 200 day moving averages (green line).The interesting thing about the first chart which shows the advancing issues indicator is the bullish divergence we saw at the low a couple of days ago. The averages had reached new lows for the reaction which began at the July 16 top. Yet at the same time the daily count of advancing issues and the 10 day moving average of this number both stayed above the low points they had reached earlier in the reaction. This was a useful clue that a low was forming.
The second chart also provided some evidence. Note how the count of the number of SPX issues above their 200 day moving averages fell to the levels associated with important lows previously in this bull market.
I think we shall see the 10 day moving average move up to its "overbought" levels (horizontal red line) and then form a sequence of lower tops before this rally is finally over. I doubt that this scenario can be completed until late this fall.
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. Instead of bouncing away from the August 2 tops these markets marched right past that resistance level. This is a very bullish development and is added confirmation of my bullish outlook for the stock market averages. I still think that more "base building has to occur if the market is to push up to new bull market highs. I think we shall see a break of about 25-30 points in the futures to support at 1475 (147.00 in the Spiders). The Q's will probably drop to 48.10 or so at the same time.
By the end of the year the Spiders are likely to have hit the 160 level and the futures will probably have traded above 1600. The Q's should trade up into the 57-60 range over the next few months.
Guesstimates on August 8, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think that a move to new bull market highs has begun. Today there is resistance above the market at 1505 in the S&P’s and 150.00 in the Spiders. Support is at 1445 and 144.00 respectively.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.90. Short term resistance is at 48.65. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-08 level is temporary support and 110-18 is resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.90. Short term resistance is at 48.65. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-08 level is temporary support and 110-18 is resistance. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. I think the fireworks which followed the Fed announcement an hour ago probably ended the first small leg up from yesterday's low. I think this rally will carry the averages to new highs for the bull market, but I also suspect that the "base building" period is not yet complete.
The downside potential from here is to 1445 in the futures, to 144.00 in the Spiders, and to 146.90 ( a slightly lower low) in the Q's. I may well be overestimating the size of this break because I also think the longer term potential is very substantial, so I won't be holding out for these levels if we see strength above the last reaction highs which I have shown on the charts above.
The main thing to remember is that there is a very bullish situation developing and the big mistake to be avoided at this juncture is to be out of stocks.
Guesstimates on August 7, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think that a move to new bull market highs has begun. Today there is resistance above the market at 1480 in the S&P’s and 147.50 in the Spiders. Support still is at 1430 and 142.50 respectively.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.90. Short term resistance is at 48.65. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds probably won’t move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. XLE and OIH are both headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.90. Short term resistance is at 48.65. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds probably won’t move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is again at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. XLE and OIH are both headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Monday, August 06, 2007
Scraping Bottom
Here are hourly charts of the Sepember S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. The S&P's and Spiders have reached my 1435 and 142.50 downside targets. They may go a little lower than today's low thus far (1432.25 in the S&P's), perhaps to 1430 as I suggested in this morning's guesstimate. In any event I think we will close up on the day today and that the market will begin to rally in earnest tomorrow. The rally from current levels should carry the averages to new bull market highs later this year.
More Bearish Sentiment in MSM
Above this post you will find shots of the front page of Saturday's The New York Times and the latest cover of The Economist magazine.
The stock market's break finally made it to the headline position in the Times. The cover of The Economist advertises the supposed "credit crunch" and boldly suggests that this medicine will be good for what ails us.
Both stories emphasize the bearish state off the credit markets, which is a little surprising given that the bond market has been rallying for 2 months since its June lows and that the Fed has been on a "steady as she goes" course for quite some time now. This makes me think that most of this "credit crunch" story has arisen largely because of the meltdown of a couple of hedge funds sponsored by Bear Stearns. This makes the headlines a post hoc explanation of the stock market drop rather than a reliable prognosis of what lies ahead.
In any case I believe that the Main Stream Media is in the business of telling people what they want to hear. I take these headlines as evidence that the correction which began from the July highs in the averages is nearly over. New bull market highs lie ahead.
Guesstimates on August 6, 9:00am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s dropped to 1432.75 this morning, a little below my 1435 estimate for the end of the reaction which started at the 1566.25 level. Resistance today is at 1455 (145.00 in the Spiders) but I think the market has a good shot at 1430 (142.50 in the Spiders) today or tomorrow. From current levels the next big move will be upward to new highs for the bull market.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds probably won’t move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: The next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. Even so I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds probably won’t move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance today is at 138.50. Strength above there will make the next upside target 141.00.
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: The next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. Even so I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Friday, August 03, 2007
Guesstimates on August 3, 9:45 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: Upside target is 1492 in the S&P’s and 148.50 in the Spiders. After this rally ends new lows for the reaction are likely.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably won’t move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Upside target later this year is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably won’t move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Guesstimates on August 2, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: It looks like the 50 point rally got underway before the S&P’s dropped to 1435. Upside target is 1492 in the S&P’s and 148.50 in the Spiders. After this rally ends new lows for the reaction are likely.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Next upside target is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably wont’ move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Next upside target is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably wont’ move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's
Here are hourly charts of the September S&P e-mini futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets yesterday. The stock market has been a little weaker than I expected, especially early this morning when the e-minis made it down to 1442 (not shown on the chart). There has been no subeseqent strength to speak of and this makes me believe that the markets must drop still lower before a substantial rally can develop. So I think the futures will make it down to 1435, the Spiders to 142.50 and the Q's to 46.50 sometime today or tomorrow. From those levels I think we shall see strong rally to the targets indicated.
Once the next rally is over I think it is quite possible that yet lower lows will be seen maybe near 1415 in the futures. However, I am still very bullish about the market's prospect going into the September-November time frame and think we shall see new bull market highs then.
Guesstimates on August 1, 8:50 am ET
Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s dropped all the way to 1442 earlier this morning in electronic trading, not too far from the 1435 target I cited yesterday for an important low. I think we shall see the low in early trading today, I don’t have a good sense of where it will occur. The subsequent rally should carry the S&Ps’ up 50 points.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Next upside target is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably wont’ move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Next upside target is 53.00.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably wont’ move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00
Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
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