Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Guesstimates on August 14, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed back to the top of last week’s range at 1510. Support today is at 1446 in the S&P’s and 144.20 in the Spiders. I think it is likely that the low of the correction has been seen and that the market is now headed for new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed back to the high of their trading range at 49.00 and later this year will go much higher than that.

TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar
: Resistance today is at 138.50. A close in New York today below 136.00 will mean that the market is headed much lower.

Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low has formed and that the market is on its way to 130.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google
: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Um did we just lose support...?

Jack said...

S&p broke down your support, again.
Sorry, pal.

Market sentiment doesn't work at all in these days.

Anonymous said...

Carl, i don't ask this to be snide, sincerely, but after so many of your support levels have been broken in the last several weeks what AND where would you change your mind about a new high ??

Thanks

Anonymous said...

The day carl changes his mind, the market will turn the other way.. Believe me..

LowTax said...

Anon,

Why do you think Carl should change his mind when this current period seems hardly different from last March or June of '06? Your logic seems incomplete. Is there more to it?

Anonymous said...

good luck, place more supports you'll need them

Anonymous said...

what about the MARCH 2008 as A LOW?

http://web.archive.org/web/20021205162052/www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/buscycle.htm

Anonymous said...

Wow

I understand all the questioning of Carl, I just do not understand the nasty tone of some of the questions.

None of the quant hedge funds seem to be working either.

I expect a bounce going into expirations on thursday my self.

My question for you is can you put your finger on why your forecasts and the quant hedge funds have been so wrong? Once the reason and estimate of the magnitude of the problem are better understood, I think better predictions can be made by you and others.

Anonymous said...

Sept is a SD month.

This decline is not a correction imo, but the start of the 4 year presidential cycle decline.

Anonymous said...

The worse is yet to come for August.

A stuck down month portending the beginning of the 4 year presidential cycle decline imo.

Anonymous said...

Again, the give away was in Yahoo finance over the weekend. Individual investors are 90% bullish. It's the journalist that are bearish. Carl, you are fading the WRONG crowd.

Anonymous said...

S&P broke support at 1430.. DOW broke 13200 support..

Anonymous said...

Lowtax, YOU are the one who chided me on my "ninth inning" remarks a couple of weeks ago 500 pts HIGHER on the DJI and warned me about WHOM i would be selling to because the "commercials" were buying S&P futures. ROTFLMAO

Anyone should consider changing their mind when support after support level THAT THEY CITE is broken. It's trading NOT catechism.

Anonymous said...

Based on the comments here and on other boards, it seems that sentiment in terms of anxiety and fear has finally reached a potential near bottom and capable of supporting a good rally. I have to include myself as the volatility and relentless selling create a great deal of anxiety as I have noticed my account balance drop. I purchased some positions at higher prices several days ago when I thought both the stocks and the market had found a short to intermediate term bottom. To my chagin the prices are even better today as sellers seemed to panic out of positions.

Hopefully the turning point is near both in terms of time and price.

It will be interesting to see what the news and media will attribute any reversal of the current market decline.

LowTax said...

Anon, my comments stand. Why do you think this is the ninth inning when it doesn't (so far) look any different than the March correction or the June '06 correction? Support after support was broken then as well. Your logic is still lacking.

Anonymous said...

magazine cover based opinions are not enough to go by, go get a mortgage, or at least get a new roof for your domed house, if you really think we should buy, please address the financial distress

Anonymous said...

The August decline is very much different than the decline of Feb/Mar. The characteristics of this decline which I cannot disclose are completely different. This will sink in when the decline resumes to the end-of-month after a brief 2-3 day rally straddling this week and next. There is never fear where there is knowledge and understanding. So please don't interpret this as fearful expectations but rather as an opportunity to profit. September will provide a nice rally that lasts approx. 3 weeks. This rally however is only a retrace before going down hard into October. But first let's get to the end of August. I guarantee it will be lower than where we are now.

Good trading.

p.s. what is the matrix?

Anonymous said...

the market prices the market at what is known...as the credit crisis facts become known, the market will price it accordingly. Now if you think this "crisis" is nothing to worry about - get long, if you are like me, buy qid.

Dao said...

Tomorrow is a key day, if we have a follow through on the down side.
I think we may head to 1370 in S&P.

Anonymous said...

"if you really think we should buy"

This is a comment of one of Anons here. I'm sure Carl doesn't think you should buy. After reading what you wrote I think you shouldn't even try in the market. Read a post of Carl about speculation and other posts. Carl please, do not allow comments. These idiots will go other way looking for another blog where they can look smarter than the author of the blog. This is your problem anon, that you come here, look for advice and try to trade the forecasts without risk control etc. This is trading not playing.

Anonymous said...

''This is trading not playing.''
thomas said.
-------------
And trading means rules.
Entry-Exit-Stop.
I ' ve never seen such a post here.
Thnx.