Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Guesstimates on February 20, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I thought the e-minis were about to breakout yesterday above the high of this 1340-1370 trading range but instead the market dropped back toward the low of the range and I was stopped out at 1346. At this juncture sustained weakness below the 1335 level would indicate that the market is headed down to 1290. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is headed for 101 or so. It has been trading in the 85-100 range for more than three months and I think the big move out of this range will be to the downside.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do you still think we'll go to new highs in 2-3 months since your original target of new highs in 3-4 months was made a month ago?

Anonymous said...

It's surprising that you are not buying at the support area of 1335. How come?

Anonymous said...

Typically some great long trades occur out of the first 5 week low after a 20 week low.

Since tomorrows Lunar Eclipse is now conjuncting Saturn (a negative vibration) and if this is the 5 week low (which can bottom early at 4 weeks) things could quickly reverse into what looks like a very positive early March which has a bullish Sun conjunct Uranus and Mercury conjunct Venus.

Large Nasdaq/Dow rally out of this 5 week low is not impossible.

Astro-cycles are looking constructive here.

Anonymous said...

today feb 21 is
89 trading days from oct 11 top
21 trading days from jan 22 low
13 trading days from feb 1 top
8 trading days from feb 8 low
5 trading days from feb 13 top

joe