Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Nattering Nabob of Negativism

Here are the last three covers of Business Week magazine. In my forty years of dealing with markets I don't think I have ever seen any national publication, even a "trade" publication like BW, publish bearish cover stories three weeks running. Business Week editors must be pretty confident of their assessment of the economy's and the market's prospects.

This is one bet I am happy to copper. My best guess is that all the markets have well discounted the foreseeable consequences of the current "credit crunch". If I am right we shall see all the major averages at new bull market highs in a few months time.


Anonymous said...

You headline cracked me up. "Nattering Nabob", that's one I hadn't heard before. Interesting that this is the first time in 40 years you've seen bearish covers on the same mag 3 weeks in a row. Besides being a strong contrarian indicator (if that turns out to be the case), I wonder what this tells us about the markets in general, that a magazine would do this, and that it would do this for the first time in 40 years? There have been many pullbacks in the market over the past 40 years, many many opportunities for magazines to run bearish covers. What's different about now, about this time, and what does it tell us about where the market is headed short-term and long-term? (And the obvious question: Where were they in the year 2000??) Perhaps it's an indication of the level of interest in the markets in general, the kind of broad interest that would be necessary for a blow-off top?

Great call on this morning's trade!


Anonymous said...

I remember "Nattering Nabob [of negativism]." Bill Safire wrote it for Spiro Agnew.


You are betraying your advanced age, Carl (and the above anonymous is betraying his youth). :)