Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Out
I was looking for a close above 1180 but the market started to show weakness below there so I sold my longs at 1176. I think tomorrow will be a bullish day.
17 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Carl, You certainly allow your trades room to work. Brass Balls methinks! Carlos
I can imagine a lot of folks went long this afternoon. But I don't think most of them are as disciplined as you Carl. Good trade, regardless of the loss outcome.
I agree. The action in the last hour, as ominous as it was, is still a headfake and the market will be higher tomorrow. The day of reckoning for this market has now been postponed to October. :)
Well Carl, for the first time since i follow your blog...you traded on emotion and whishfull thinking...averaging losing position, adding to loosing positions... This is not market as usual...Do you realize that America just lost three of its most important institutions : Bear Stern gone, two days after the CEO speech on how in great shape his firm was, Lehman, penny stock, two ou three days after its CEO spoke about shareholdervalue...AIG, the first insurer in the world, gone, Now we have Morgan who blame the shorter ??? He should just answer one question : "How much Leh's CDS does he have on his book!"; not to speak about Fannie, Freddie, Wamu, Wb...It's the whole financial reputation of the US that is in jeopardy...nothing less...So even the one who'll survive, where will they find capital ???
And Capital is what will be needed to have a new Bull market!
Who on main street is willing to buy stocks? if he has the money left for it...
So tell me what is going to be the fuel for the next bull market you're expecting ?
For sure, their will be short covering and rebound...but things are getting urglier every day...
Well i have lost money as well today...that happens...But it would be really interresting if you could post your view on the economy...
I finally agree with you - today the news especially here in the UK really could not be worse. I still see lower longer term but agree that tommorrow should be bullish. Interesingly usd jpy ,eur jpy and gbp jpy made lows yesterday. Catherine
Carl, if you are bullish eceryday you are bound to be right soon. I thought you followed patterns. If that were true you would not be bullish everyday. I don't believe you are using George Linday's methods for a minute.
I think tomorrow we will see a bear rally but I wouldn't broadcast that for public viewing. It's not fair to individuals who are new to trading and jumping around websites to make a quick buck. most all ES bloggers are long biased even as the ES reaches levels not seen in years. I think it's shameful!Stick to your longer term forecasting and get out the daily toilet practice of predicting movements.
I haven't been following the blog for a while, but have to admire carl for posting his trades for all to see. I personally believe that day trading is an absolute gamble as the market can and will hurt everyone. Whether you are long or short, you will almost always lose money! Why on earth smart people think they can outsmart or even believe they can predict-and-successfully trade this market is beyond me.
In any case, the SPX is heading down to 1060 that should be a good point at which we will see a decent and sustained bounce into the elections. Unfortunately, I do not believe it will be the start of a bull market.
The sentiment has changed and the SPX will be back down to triple digit price levels.
Stay in cash and keep safe. All asset classes other than cash are doomed for the next year at least.
hi carl there is a theory from steve puetz i assume you had read about it at some point . the cycle has untill tomorrow the 18th to finish . yesterday with the dow up 144 there was 2210 new 52 week lows on nyse versus 11 new highs today with the dow down 450 there was 1093 new 52 week lows versus 12 new 52 weeks highs . my work calls for a low from the 16th 19th yet it technically said low was today so what every comes now it is very important that next week is up or im affraid we head towards 9708 on the dow . the one problem that still exists is the 10 day trin it is actually still overbought the oex / vxo plus vix though is very close to signalling a panic low . i know it was below 8 today yet i have bad quote on vxo close so i cant officially say where it closed . that indicator has marked many bottoms over the past 14 yrs good luck joe
After today's ass whippen, (excuse my French..but that what it was) futures' are up 12....what a joke. Today's reaction was totally opposite of what I thought. The market is telling me ..I don't know about you all....that more shoes are about to come off. We shall see, kind regards, Janet
By the way what happened to all the magazine cover stories that were posted on this blog through out the year.. what happened to contrarian investing based on magazine cover stories.. whoever bought your idea of s&p going 1500 are now doomed..
The market will have a sustained rally in next 1 week, as the sentiment is touching extremes. This rally will last till the elections.. Mark my words.
17 comments:
Carl,
You certainly allow your trades room to work. Brass Balls methinks!
Carlos
This is gonna be an ugly close which sets us up for washout selling after tomorrow's open.
Maybe, then we have a chance to put in a decent multi-day/week rally.
I can imagine a lot of folks went long this afternoon. But I don't think most of them are as disciplined as you Carl. Good trade, regardless of the loss outcome.
I agree. The action in the last hour, as ominous as it was, is still a headfake and the market will be higher tomorrow. The day of reckoning for this market has now been postponed to October. :)
"Doc"
Hope is eternal!
the markets could crash here .... how will Asian traders react to this extreme weakness!??
Decimated Pete
Bought the NQZ8 1665...1639.75 low so far .. when VIX moved up again to test and take out 35.75 high, spiked up above 36
pray for me,lol
rob(wannabe millionaire trader)
Well Carl, for the first time since i follow your blog...you traded on emotion and whishfull thinking...averaging losing position, adding to loosing positions...
This is not market as usual...Do you realize that America just lost three of its most important institutions : Bear Stern gone, two days after the CEO speech on how in great shape his firm was, Lehman, penny stock, two ou three days after its CEO spoke about shareholdervalue...AIG, the first insurer in the world, gone, Now we have Morgan who blame the shorter ??? He should just answer one question : "How much Leh's CDS does he have on his book!"; not to speak about Fannie, Freddie, Wamu, Wb...It's the whole financial reputation of the US that is in jeopardy...nothing less...So even the one who'll survive, where will they find capital ???
And Capital is what will be needed to have a new Bull market!
Who on main street is willing to buy stocks? if he has the money left for it...
So tell me what is going to be the fuel for the next bull market you're expecting ?
For sure, their will be short covering and rebound...but things are getting urglier every day...
Well i have lost money as well today...that happens...But it would be really interresting if you could post your view on the economy...
tomorrow will be a better day
Balsamo
I finally agree with you - today the news especially here in the UK really could not be worse. I still see lower longer term but agree that tommorrow should be bullish.
Interesingly usd jpy ,eur jpy and gbp jpy made lows yesterday.
Catherine
Carl, if you are bullish eceryday you are bound to be right soon. I thought you followed patterns. If that were true you would not be bullish everyday. I don't believe you are using George Linday's methods for a minute.
Ed Reardon
I think tomorrow we will see a bear rally but I wouldn't broadcast that for public viewing. It's not fair to individuals who are new to trading and jumping around websites to make a quick buck. most all ES bloggers are long biased even as the ES reaches levels not seen in years. I think it's shameful!Stick to your longer term forecasting and get out the daily toilet practice of predicting movements.
I haven't been following the blog for a while, but have to admire carl for posting his trades for all to see. I personally believe that day trading is an absolute gamble as the market can and will hurt everyone. Whether you are long or short, you will almost always lose money! Why on earth smart people think they can outsmart or even believe they can predict-and-successfully trade this market is beyond me.
In any case, the SPX is heading down to 1060 that should be a good point at which we will see a decent and sustained bounce into the elections. Unfortunately, I do not believe it will be the start of a bull market.
The sentiment has changed and the SPX will be back down to triple digit price levels.
Stay in cash and keep safe. All asset classes other than cash are doomed for the next year at least.
Cramer says we're going lower!!!!
THIS IS THE BOTTOM!!!
hi carl
there is a theory from steve puetz i assume you had read about it at some point . the cycle has untill tomorrow the 18th to finish .
yesterday with the dow up 144
there was 2210 new 52 week lows on nyse versus 11 new highs today with the dow down 450 there was 1093 new 52 week lows versus 12 new 52 weeks highs . my work calls for a low from the 16th 19th yet it technically said low was today
so what every comes now it is very important that next week is up or im affraid we head towards 9708 on the dow . the one problem that still exists is the 10 day trin
it is actually still overbought
the oex / vxo plus vix though is
very close to signalling a panic low . i know it was below 8 today
yet i have bad quote on vxo close so i cant officially say where it closed . that indicator has marked many bottoms over the past 14 yrs
good luck
joe
Carl, and you still think market is going up?
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/584-The-Potential-End-Of-Americas-Government.html
After today's ass whippen, (excuse my French..but that what it was) futures' are up 12....what a joke. Today's reaction was totally opposite of what I thought. The market is telling me ..I don't know about you all....that more shoes are about to come off. We shall see, kind regards, Janet
By the way what happened to all the magazine cover stories that were posted on this blog through out the year.. what happened to contrarian investing based on magazine cover stories.. whoever bought your idea of s&p going 1500 are now doomed..
The market will have a sustained rally in next 1 week, as the sentiment is touching extremes. This rally will last till the elections.. Mark my words.
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