Thursday, November 11, 2010

Guesstimates on November 11, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1200-1211. I think a drop to 1190 or so is underway. Once it is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 52.00 and the next upside target is 57.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro shows no signs of a top. Next target is 143.50.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

December Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market still has the bit between its teeth. Next upside target is 1480.

SLV - December Silver: I see no sign that the rhythm of the advance has faltered. Next stop is 31.60.

Google: The 475 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

1 comment:

the bonocelli said...

Hey Carl...great calls. Been a follower/lurker for awhile. I had just one question though.

You have estimates for crude to head south to $50. Is that in conjunction with SPX heading north to 1300, or afterwards? It seems the markets are inflating stocks based on a devalued dollar. Wouldn't that also inflate crude?

Not sure what you are thinking, but it would be great to hear your thoughts.

PS - Sorry if I missed the a response previoulsy posted.