Monday, November 08, 2010

Guesstimates on November 8, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1212-1225. I think this first attempt at a breakout above the April top at 1216 will fail and be followed by a break of 30-40 points. After that the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro shows no signs of a top. Next target is 143.50.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

December Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: Upside target is 1380 has been reached but the market still has the bit between its teeth. Next upside target is 1480.

SLV - December Silver: Next upside target is 26.50 has been reached. I see no sign that the rhythm of the advance has faltered. Next stop is 29.50.

Google: The 475 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

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