Thursday, September 15, 2011

Guesstimates on September 15, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1180-1205. The ES is now headed for 1230-40. From there the drop to 950 or so should resume.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3850. I think we have seen only the first phase of a much bigger drop to 1.2000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

October Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold s headed for 2060.

SLV - December Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.


Wathen said...

Does the strength above 1.3850 in the Euro chaange you view at all?

straightshooter2000 said...

If you think that the ES is headed under 1,000, then it seems highly unlikely to think that it will exceed the August 31st high of 1230. Rather, let's look for a lower high.

Harry said...

The Bull Bear Ratio is now inverted which is very rare and limits sharp downside selling. We have 5% more bears than bulls in the ratio, "the trade is full."

mark said...

"The ES is now headed for 1230-40. From there the drop to 950 or so should resume."

Are you joking? The bottom is already in
The NDX is only 7% away from the 10 year highs
This is not a bear market

You've said we were close to reach 1400/1450 and the the market collapsed. Now that the market is going up you are saying we'll have another leg down!
20% down!!??

Please elaborate your work
I don't understand your analysis

pouncencapture said...

Great range call today!

cantdrive55 said...

Carl...can you update on that GOOG at 375 prediction. Is that still potentially in play now ? Thanks

q said...

I think its important to note that this current rally was launched from a false break of a very popular bearish pattern. Given this type of action, the very bearish backdrop, high short interest on the NYSE and extreme sentiment readings, its not surprising to see prices carry much higher. Additionally, as I have written in the past, the NDX was never broken (unlike the SPX) and its very possible the NDX could reach new highs for the year. This post walks through the false break, something all traders should be aware of: