Friday, September 02, 2011

Guesstimates on September 2, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1171-1192. The ES has completed its top building process and is now headed for 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has traded sideways in a narrow range for several weeks and now is showing signs of dropping below this range. A New York close below 1.4050 would convince me that the market is headed for 1.35 and possibly lower. Meantime I will stick with my 1.53 upside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold has rallied well above the 1820-40 resistance zone. I now think the market is headed for 2060.

SLV - September Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

1 comment:

Razor said...

Carl - can you give me your thoughts on the 10-year treasury yield and why you think it will rally to 4.5% even after the FED recent actions...