Thursday, February 23, 2012

Guesstimates on February 23, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1352-1361. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The May 2011 top was at 1373. I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: A drop to 475 or so is likely. After that AAPL should head for the next resistance at 545.


Kelly Blaine said...

Match up a Japan Nikkei post ZIRP chart to a US Post ZIRP and they align VERY closely. If we remain on Japans Post-ZIRP path, we are within days of up to a 17% pullback....the % pullback is not as important as he timing which suggests the pullback will last rom early March thru early June, afterwhich we wil have one more rally into mid 2013...this will perhaps be a little higher than current levels, but that will very likely be a 'lifetime' high and a plunge back to SPX 666 level by 2014.

The bottom line....liquidity or not, the current market structure is more unstable than anytime in the history of SPX....this to me suggests a likely black swan event will be upon us.

Nav said...

Transports having an upside reversal day from 5090, lifting from that important 5067/5068
Oct-Dec range high. Resistance rests at 5241 & 5266. The Transports still have a lot to do to
confirm the Dow Industrial's new highs but at least for now the index has stopped falling.

SW said...

Hi, can you teach us why you expect Apple to drop to 475 before heading for 545? TIA!