Thursday, February 02, 2012

trend is still up

Here is a daily bar chart of the March '12 e-mini futures.

As you can see the market was very calm in January, a big contrast to the wild volatility of the preceding 4 months. Yet it continued creeping higher all month while hugging the upper line of the purple trend channel I have drawn. There is room for a reaction to 1295-1300 without violating the lower channel line, and at this juncture I think such a reaction is more likely than not. One reason for thinking so is that 1320 the market equaled the size of it initial rally off of the November 25 low (blue dash rectangles), thus making 1320 a logical spot for extensive consolidation or a reaction to start.

Looking a bit further ahead you can see that the purple upper channel line is now at 1350 and within a couple of weeks will be at 1370. The e-mini high in May of 2011 was 1373. Moreover, a rally from the November 25 low which equals the 221 point rally off of the October 2011 low would put the ES at 1366 (red dash rectangles). So I think the next reaction which lasts more than a few days will start from roughly the 1370 level.

So far I don't see any sign of the "left shoulder" which would indicate the development of the top of the domed house as I discussed in this recent post. Until that happens I will maintain my bullish long term stance on the US stock market.

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