Friday, April 13, 2012

Guesstimates on April 13, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1373-1383. Yesterday's strong rally coming immediately on the heels of Tuesday's big drop means that 1352.50 ended the corrective swing down from 1419.75. A move to new highs is now underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 70.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support at 635 has been broken but I think the 615 level will hold.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.


Edwin said...

Looks like a back test rally is finished and we are going down.

The patient traders will be looking for lower prices in the presence of positive divergence in the breadth indicators to place a high probability trade.

Carl's public charts are excellent breadth tools for spotting divergence.

macabee said...

Using a 60 min chart with EW counts, we broke 1374 downward today. Therefore, i increased my short positions and have 1340 area as my next target. I do believe we are in a corrective complex wave 4.

MadMax said...

You change your opinion too fast...
With today's close, there will be more selling pressure next week, so the analysis you made Yesterday seems correct to me
A drop in the 1330-1340 range is the obvious

Anonymous said...

Sorry Carl, but it looks like the market is still in a "corrective" sequence. As you know, the first leg was 65 points down. A measured-move will target 1323.13

Carl Futia said...

why didn't you guys tell me this before today's open?

Chip said...

There is a bearish flag on the s&p (over the last few days) and if that cracks there is serious downside coming.

I love carl's work, but have to disagree on this occasion. More downside is coming I think.

I would agree with many in here, Do not be surprised to see us at low 1300's soon.

john said...
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Win said...

Carl, I like your response above. Wave 4 are very hard to trade. I long, but with a little bit of dry powder for next week.