Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Reaction is probably over

Here is a daily bar chart showing the past year's activity in the cash S&P 500. As far as I can tell the bull market which began from last October's low at 1077 is still going strong. As long as the market is above a rising 200 day moving average I think the bullish case deserves the benefit of the doubt.

The drop from the March 27 top just about matched the size of the December break (blue dash rectangles). It stopped on the rising blue dash trend line I have drawn. The low thus far was not far below a rising 50 day moving average and not far below support associated with the May 2011 top (upper green dash horizontal line).

All in all this is a bullish configuration in a bull market. I think it is likely that last week's low near 1357 will hold and that the S&P 500 will soon move above its March 2012 top. Even if I am wrong about this the worst I see on the downside would be a slight break of the March 6 low near 1344 (lower dash green line).

Some of you are wondering about my current views on Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house. I plan to do a separate post on the subject soon. Right now I think that if a domed house really did start from the October 2011 low then point 21 was the late March top. One could argue that the late March top was in fact point 23, the high of the domed house but my timing estimates based on Lindsay's methods fit better with the hypothesis that point 23 still is ahead of us.


HAOQI said...

It is possible to see a small 3pdh: started form MAR 19. Now it's at point 14. The 1stF-wall would surge from tomorrow or 1 day later. It is also made possible by 2011 3-peak, and the current 50MA.

Win said...

I think the rising wedges/flags suggest a little more downside before the bull resumes. I think we see 1340 ES 775 (or so), RUT. Also SOX (my AWACs) has been weak.

HAOQI said...

Today 4/30, it's like a 1st floor root point 18.

HAOQI said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
HAOQI said...

There was a typo: point 18 should be 17.

Today 5/1 it started the down move from point 17 to point 18 (may be on 5/18 to reach point 18).