Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Guesstimates on April 3, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1400-1412. The market looks like it is bouncing off of resistance near its last high at 1419.75. This means that it will probably drop to 1390 or so before resuming its rally. After that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower. Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 632. and support at 590.

1 comment:

Nav said...

FOMC minutes from the Mar 13 meeting due out Tues Apr 3 (2pmET); minutes to be
more dovish than the initial Mar 13 statement? Recall it was the 3/13 FOMC statement
that really broke bonds, causing 10yr yields to break up through a months-long trading range.
At the time, investors took the communiqué’s upgraded economic outlook and inflation
warning (due to rising crude prices) as a subtle hawkish change in Fed tone (QE3 odds
collapsed at the time and some started to question the Fed’s ’14 ZIRP commitment). Since
then, expectations for monetary policy have been reset a bit, esp. following Bernanke’s
dovish 3/26 jobs market overview. Watch for the minutes to confirm the Fed’s 2014 ZIRP
pledge but not necessarily hint at additional QE (a slew of Fed officials have spoken lately
and while several have expressed a willingness to do more on the policy front should
conditions warrant such a move, none seem to think present trends deserve incremental
easing). Beyond the minutes, the next FOMC decision (and Bernanke press conf) comes on
Apr 25.
❀^._.^= ₮ђคภк ¥❤u §๏ ♏ucђ! ☮