March S&P E-mini Futures:
Today's
day session range estimate is 1501-1511. Short term support is in the 1490-95
zone but I think it is likely that this reaction will carry the ES down to 1470
or so. There is strong long term resistance in the 1540-87 range. It is likely
that a drop of 100 or more points will begin from a top in that resistance zone
and that top probably is still ahead of us.
QQQ: The Q's are now headed for 73. The 65.50 level
is now support.
TNX (ten year note
yield):
Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger
economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken
below the first two support levels I calculated and now has retraced about half
of its rally from the 1.2700 low last November. The September 2012 top was
about 1.3150 so any weakness below 1.3100 will mean that the market is headed
back to the 1.27-1.28 zone.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull
market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.
April Crude: The September 2012 top is just above 100 and
unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my
view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at
101.
April Gold: Gold is likely to find support near its last
two lows in the 1530-40 range.
March Silver: Silver should find
support near the 26.00 level.
Google: There are several old
tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800
and higher.
Apple: During the current rally in the averages AAPL
has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and
near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.
2 comments:
looking at the chart it becomes apparent that whenever the market gets significantly above the 200DMA, like it currently is, it has a history of correcting back down to that MA.
Curt, a drop down to the 200 day MA is exactly what we need as many people quit playing the upside long time ago.
But Carl appears to be expecting another trip to the stratosphere again, as Carl said on Feb 21, "It is likely that a drop of 100 or more points will begin from a top in that resistance zone and such a top probably is still ahead of us."
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