Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Guesstimates on May 1, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1590-1602. The market is holding above its April 16 rally high at 1570.75 which now should be support. This implies that it is headed up to 1605 or so. But I still think that a drop of 10% or more is imminent.
QQQ:  Headed for 73.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. However the market is likely to stall for a few weeks beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  The market has rallied a bit above 1440 resistance but should halt at 1465. Strength above 1465 would mean that gold is headed back to the breakout point at 1530. Downside target is still 1200-50.
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: The market averages are headed higher and GOOG held well above
support at 747, its 2007 top during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.

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