Friday, May 10, 2013

Guesstimates on May 10, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1624-1635. The market has moved through its long term resistance zone of 1546-87. A drop of 30-40 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will now be support. I am putting aside my 10% break scenario for the time being since I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Headed for 73.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. The dollar-yen has been stalling beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96. The next leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  Today’s drop has put the market back below 1465 resistance. If it stays there for the next couple of days I think gold will be on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG held well above support at 747, its 2007 top, during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.

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