Friday, May 17, 2013

Guesstimates on May 17, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1650-1662. A drop of 30-60 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will be support. I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading below it 20 day moving average and has spent a couple of days below 1.2920 support. At this juncture I have to conclude that the market is headed below its April 4 low at 1.2744. Downside target is now 1.24oo
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG has reached and exceeded the 900 target. Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Not sure what you think of this
but it fits .
Maybe sometime in the future you
will be able to touch on this .
Lindsay count from the mid section
I am using a monthly chart so considering this a bit rough.
Point E Sept 2009
Point F Jan 2010
Point G April 2010
Point H July 2010
Point J May 2011
My observations with this
Point E to H should Equal
Point H to J .
Lindsay's Observations
Point E to J should Equal
Point J to A
This places Point A Nov 2012
Point E to A ( and sometimes C )
Should Equal Point A to JJ
This would project a top in
Jan 2016 ???.
This would also imply a new bull
market began in Nov 2012 which
also fell with in the 12 yrs 3 months to 12 years 8 months from the march 2000 peak .
Looking at the Nyse cash index
I believe Lindsay did note that a typical rally from a 12 yr 3 to 8 month cycle low lasted roughly
7 to 8 months . this would imply
a June July top but not a bull market peak if this mid section count has any validity .
Should be interesting to see how this works out going forward .
Good luck