Friday, August 16, 2013

Guesstimates on August 16, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1647-64.  The high volume drop below 1670 yesterday looks like a genuine downside breakout from the 1670-1705 trading range. This makes it likely that the ES is headed back to its June 24 low as 1553.
QQQ:  If the market starts accepting prices below 75 it is headed back down to 69 or lower.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: It looks like a move up to 1.400 is underway.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
September Crude:  Crude is stalling at 108 resistance.  
December Gold:  I think a rally of $200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: The 18.00 level is support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  This looks like a breakout above the high of a trading range which formed below 460 over the past few months. AAPL is also trading above its declining 200 day moving average, another bullish clue. The 460 level is now support and as long as it holds I think AAPL will continue its rally to 560 or so.

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