Guesstimates on September 30, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate is 1661-1674. The S&P 500 is on the verge of slipping below its 50 day moving average, thus joining the Dow which is below its 50 day moving average and moving me to the bear side of the market. If this happens the prognosis would be for at least a drop to 1599 where the break from the September 19 top would equal the size of the May-June drop.

QQQ:  The Q’s have been much stronger than the other averages. Support is at 75. Upside target is still 86.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

November Crude:  Crude has put in the biggest break since the April 2013 low. I think crude is headed back to that low at 86 and possibly lower than that.

December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.

December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385. In the meantime I will maintain my bullish stance.

Guesstimates on September 27, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate is 1675-1690. The S&P 500 and the advance-decline line are still trading above their 50 day moving averages while the Dow moved below its moving average yesterday. If the majority of these three indicators trades below their respective moving averages I will turn bearish a look for a move below 1600. In the meantime the trend remains upward and will likely carry the ES to 1775 or higher during the next couple of months

QQQ:  Upside target is 86.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

November Crude:  Crude has put in the biggest break since the April 2013 low. I think crude is headed back to that low at 86 and possibly lower than that.

December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.

December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385. In the meantime I will maintain my bullish stance.

stock market update

Here are daily charts showing the S&P 500, the Dow, and the New York Stock exchange advance-decline ratio. The market has been trading essentially sideways for the last four months and I am using the "majority rules" approach based on the three, 50 day moving averages (green wavy lines) for each of these indicators.

For the moment the S&P 500 and the advance-decline line are both still above their 50 day moving averages while the Dow broke below its moving average yesterday. As long as two of these three indicators remain above the indicator's moving average I will presume that the trend is upward. My upside target for the S&P is currently 1775.

Should two of these three indicators move below the 50 day moving average I will turn bearish and start looking for a move to the low end of this four month trading area.

Guesstimates on September 26, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate for the December contract is 1686-1700. The S&P 500 and the advance-decline line are still trading above their 50 day moving averages while the Dow moved below its moving average yesterday. If the majority of these three indicators trades below their respective moving averages I will turn bearish a look for a move below 1600. In the meantime the trend remains upward and will likely carry the ES to 1775 or higher during the next couple of months

QQQ:  Upside target is 86.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

November Crude:  Crude has spent three consecutive days trading entirely below its 50 day moving average and in the process has put in the biggest break since the April 2013 low. I now think crude is headed back to that low at 86 and possibly lower than that.

December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.

December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385. In the meantime I will maintain my bullish stance.